Affordable electric vehicles predicted to undersell conventional ones by 2027, according to research report

A new study commissioned by Transport and Environment, a European clean transport campaign group, suggests that electric vehicles (EVs) are on the verge of becoming more affordable than their fossil fuel counterparts. The study, which was published on Monday, predicts that the cost of an electric sedan, currently around 40,000 euros, will drop to around 20,000 euros by 2026.

The drop in the cost of batteries and the use of dedicated production lines for EVs will contribute to their lower prices. The study also predicts that EVs will represent 50% of new sales by 2030 and 85% by 2035, but could reach 100% under certain policy conditions.

The study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance found that electric heavy vans will be less expensive than diesel models from 2026, and electric light vans will be less expensive from 2025. The study further indicates that electric cars will be as cheap as combustion vehicles by 2026, with small cars following suit in 2027.

Carmakers are shifting en masse to electric and hybrid models to bring average fleet emissions under a European Union limit of 95 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer. Failure to meet this limit results in heavy penalties. The study also suggests that EVs will be affordable for all consumers, including those in urban areas like Berlin and rural areas like the Romanian countryside.

If lawmakers increase vehicle CO2 targets and implement policies to stimulate the market, such as a faster roll-out of charging points, EVs could reach 100% of new sales by 2035. The study predicts that EVs will reach 100% of new sales by 2035 under certain policy conditions, and the study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance supports this prediction.

The affordability of EVs will make them accessible to a wider audience, potentially leading to a significant reduction in carbon emissions across Europe. As more and more consumers switch to electric vehicles, the transition to a cleaner, more sustainable future seems within reach.