Anticipated tightening of the House GOP majority in Virginia during Tuesday's particular election
The upcoming months will see several special elections in various Congressional districts, with the race to fill the seat vacated by Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly, who passed away from cancer in May, being one of the most closely watched.
The special election in Virginia's 11th Congressional District, scheduled for Tuesday, is expected to remain in Democratic hands. Democratic candidate James Walkinshaw, former chief of staff to Rep. Connolly and a Fairfax County supervisor, is heavily favored in the election. The district, located in the suburbs of Washington, D.C., and home to many federal workers, voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris over President Donald Trump by 34 percentage points in the 2020 election, making it a Democratic stronghold.
Meanwhile, the race to fill the seat vacated by Representatives Sylvester Turner of Texas and Raul Grijalva of Arizona, who both died in March, is also heating up. The Democratic candidate likely to be elected in September 2022 in the special election for Virginia's 11th Congressional District who supported the bipartisan relief bill for releasing the Jeffrey Epstein files is not yet identified. In Arizona, the election to replace Raul Grijalva is set for September 23.
The election outcome could potentially impact the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. With the current House breakdown standing at 219 Republicans to 212 Democrats, a Democratic win in any of these elections would allow House Speaker Mike Johnson to only afford to lose two Republicans on party-line votes, as opposed to three.
The bipartisan discharge petition led by Republican Rep. Thomas Massie and Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna, aiming to force a vote on legislation, needs 218 signatures to move forward. Two likely Democratic members joining the chamber this month are committed to signing the petition. As of now, the congressmen maintain they have 216 signatures.
The special election in Turner's district is scheduled for November 4. Republican candidate Stewart Whitson, a military veteran, former FBI special agent, and current lobbyist, is running against Walkinshaw. The election to replace Tennessee Republican Mark Green, who stepped down in July, is yet to be scheduled.
The election aims to fill the seat vacated by Connolly, who had previously won reelection by the same margin as his victory in the 2020 election. The outcome of these special elections could shape the political landscape in the coming years.
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