Bitcoin may experience a potential drop in September, followed by a potential rally in Q4, according to cyclical data.

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In the world of cryptocurrency, September has traditionally been a challenging month for Bitcoin, but this year, experts are offering mixed predictions about its recovery and potential performance.

Historically, September has proven to be a tough month for Bitcoin, particularly in post-halving years. For instance, in 2017 and 2021, the digital currency saw abrupt declines following a contrasting August performance. In 2017, Bitcoin ended the month with a close to 8% loss, while in 2021, it dropped by 7%. Even as far back as 2013, Bitcoin fell by 1.60% in September.

However, this year, Bitcoin has shown signs of resilience. After closing August with a 6.25% loss, the cryptocurrency bounced back above $112,000 as of the current date, following a dip to $107,000 last week - its lowest mark since July.

Benjamin Cowen, head of ITC Crypto, has pointed to the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) as a marker. According to Cowen, September tends to bring price dips toward the 20-week SMA before a fourth-quarter recovery takes hold. He continues to stress that corrections after setting fresh highs are part of the cycle.

Despite the cautious tone from some analysts, some voices point to a brighter near-term outlook. Analysts remain split on whether the current upswing in Bitcoin's price can hold through September. Some believe current data indicate a different configuration, with macroeconomic parameters more pronounced over price action.

The optimism stems from increased institutional investment and enthusiasm around newly approved Bitcoin spot ETFs. If Bitcoin remains sustainably above $125,000, experts currently believe that its recovery can hold through September 2025.

This renewed hope among traders is not without its caveats, however. Analysts caution that potential corrections and high volatility remain risks to Bitcoin's recovery. Nevertheless, most agree that short-term turbulence is unlikely to alter the long-term picture of Bitcoin trading far higher in the years ahead.

In conclusion, while September has not been kind to Bitcoin in the past, the digital currency's performance this year presents a more promising outlook. As the month progresses, it will be interesting to see whether Bitcoin can maintain its recovery and set a new precedent for September performance.

Bitcoin may experience a potential drop in September, followed by a potential rally in Q4, according to cyclical data.