Borrowers are documenting their mortgages with paperwork.
The Russian mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market is gearing up for significant expansion over the next few years. According to industry projections, new originators may collectively realise MBS issuances at an average of 150-170 billion rubles per year.
VTB, one of the leading players in the market, has outlined ambitious plans to increase the share of mortgage securities in its funding of mortgage operations to more than 60% by 2030. Sberbank, which accounted for nearly 40% of the MBS issuances in 2024, also aims to issue additional MBS on the "Dom.RF" platform by the end of the year.
The total volume of MBS in circulation by the end of 2030 is estimated to be around 3.8 trillion rubles. By 2030, the volume of MBS guaranteed by AO "Dom.RF" may exceed 1 trillion rubles, with the figure expected to grow to 800 billion rubles by 2027.
In 2026, the volume of MBS guaranteed by AO "Dom.RF" is expected to be around 600 billion rubles. Seven MBS issues of "Dom.RF" totaling 386.3 billion rubles were placed in the first eight months of the year, with four banks acting as originators, including Alfa-Bank for the first time.
Alfa-Bank plans to issue an additional 65 billion rubles in MBS, bringing the total for the year to 10% of its mortgage portfolio. Absolute Bank, another active player, has an active memorandum that includes "conducting securitization deals within a certain period, including 2025."
Dom.RF, the guarantor of many MBS issues, expects several more issues to be placed by the end of the year, with the total volume exceeding 500 billion rubles. The banks surveyed by Kommersant stated their readiness to place new issues by the end of the year. However, there are no relevant search results that provide information on which banks intend to issue further MBS on the Dom.RF platform by the end of the year.
The share of securitized credits in the overall portfolio is expected to increase from 7.9% in 2024 to 9.7% by 2030. By the end of 2024, the volume of securitized credits in the portfolio of Sberbank was 7%, VTB - 12%, Dom.RF Bank - 14%, and Gazprombank - 47%.
Sergey Mikhailov, director of Absolute Bank's investment department, was noted as stating that the bank has an active memorandum for conducting securitization deals. The news bodes well for the future of the Russian MBS market, with a potential doubling of its annual bond issuance volume to over 1 trillion rubles in the next five years.
