CBRE adjusts earnings forecast for Q2 and Q3 on the Las Vegas Strip, anticipating a surge in Q4 and 2026
Golden Entertainment's Shares Near CBRE's Price Target Amid Lowered Estimates for Las Vegas Strip Casinos
In a recent development, analyst John DeCree at CBRE Group has maintained a price target of $33 for Golden Entertainment, a casino operator that owns the Strat in Las Vegas. However, DeCree has downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold, citing valuation concerns.
The current trading price of Golden Entertainment's shares is close to CBRE's $33 target, indicating a potential stabilization in the stock's value. DeCree remains optimistic about the company, expressing confidence in the potential for incremental upside from a recovery in visitation and occupancy on the Las Vegas Strip, or from external growth opportunities.
However, DeCree has lowered his second- and third-quarter earnings estimates for Las Vegas Strip casinos, including Golden Entertainment, Caesars Entertainment, MGM Resorts International, and Wynn Resorts. The analyst attributes this to a softening trend on the Las Vegas Strip, which he notes has been ongoing throughout the second quarter.
The slowdown in the Las Vegas market is due to a confluence of factors, including lower international visitation, tariff headlines, macroeconomic uncertainty, and cost creep in Las Vegas.
In contrast, Wynn Resorts, with its unique premium positioning, is seen as having less risk in the current market. DeCree has even raised his price target for Wynn Resorts to $135 from $125, reflecting his positive outlook for the company.
Meanwhile, other operators in the Las Vegas market are also facing challenges. Caesars Entertainment, for example, reported a 5.9% decrease in Strip revenue per room so far this year, and a 6.5% drop in Las Vegas visitation through May. Despite this, they expect record EBITDA for 2025 due to a strong Q4 booking pace, supported by recent capital reinvestments and major events like the World Series of Poker.
Casino visitation trends in Las Vegas show some market softness on the Strip side, impacted by tourism and convention activities. However, regional/local casinos, like Boyd Gaming, are benefiting from loyal customer bases and accessible pricing. Boyd Gaming, a significant operator in Las Vegas locals and some Strip properties, posted strong Q2 2025 growth, beating revenue expectations with nearly a 7% increase and stable room rates in locals markets.
Despite the current challenges, DeCree has been positive about Golden Entertainment since 2016, acknowledging the management's ability to create meaningful value for shareholders through M&A, balance sheet fortification, and shareholder returns.
[1] Caesars Entertainment Q2 2025 Earnings Release, [Link to Source] [2] Las Vegas Casino Visit Trends in 2025, [Link to Source] [3] Boyd Gaming Q2 2025 Earnings Release, [Link to Source]
Golden Entertainment, a casino operator on Las Vegas Strip, has its shares close to CBRE's $33 target, despite lowered second- and third-quarter earnings estimates for Las Vegas Strip casinos. In Las Vegas, casino visitation trends show market softness on the Strip side, while regional/local casinos like Boyd Gaming benefit from loyal customer bases.
