Competition for Dominance in Syria: Who Emerges Victorious
In the aftermath of the Syrian conflict, a new power dynamic is taking shape, with Saudi Arabia poised to play a significant role in the country's future.
According to reports, Syria's interim government under Mr. Sharaa may follow a pro-Western posture, similar to Saudi Arabia's stance. This shift could be a result of President Trump's decision to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria at the request of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Saudi Arabia's influence, however, may be limited if Ankara establishes military bases in Syria. In such a scenario, Saudi Arabia's role might be confined to financing the reconstruction efforts, rather than exerting direct political control.
The Middle Eastern nation, along with the United Arab Emirates, has expressed a keen interest in reducing Iran's influence in Syria. They aim to achieve this through financial investments and strengthening political ties with Damascus. Turkey and Israel also hold significant military and regional power in Syria, while internal factions like Kurds, Druses, and Alawites continue to shape the fragmented societal landscape and ongoing conflicts.
Despite this, some analysts believe that Saudi Arabia, not Turkey, is best placed to become the leading foreign actor in Syria. This is due to Saudi Arabia's resources and interest in the region.
Interestingly, Turkey and Israel maintain direct diplomatic ties, despite heated rhetoric from Turkish President Erdogan. Ankara could establish a series of military bases throughout Syria, potentially becoming the main foreign power in the country. However, the risks of continuing violence in Syria remain, especially given long-standing animosities held by jihadists for minorities.
Saudi Arabia has shown interest in helping Syria rebuild and revive its economy. This could make Saudi Arabia a prime candidate to serve as Syria's reconstruction partner, not just economically but also politically. Billboards in Damascus even proclaimed "thank you" to the U.S. president and the Saudi crown prince.
Moreover, Saudi Arabia brokered a brief meeting between President Trump and Syria's Mr. Sharaa in May. This meeting could be a sign of Saudi Arabia's ambition to serve as Syria's main patron, financing its economic reconstruction.
Israel and Turkey are currently mitigating the risks of clashes in Syria. A hotline has been established between Turkish and Israeli military officers to avert potential clashes. Syria may maintain cool but distant relations with Israel, waiting for a signal from Saudi Arabia before normalizing with Israel.
The new Syria may follow the Saudi lead in seeking to align with an American-supported, pro-Western alliance in the Middle East. However, there is also a possibility that the al-Sharaa government under Mr. Sharaa may tolerate de facto autonomy in minority regions of Syria. Some analysts even suggest that the new Syria could follow Turkiye's lead on foreign policy, potentially aligning more with the BRICS countries than with the West.
As the Syrian conflict comes to a close, the role of Saudi Arabia in Syria's future remains uncertain. However, one thing is clear: Saudi Arabia's influence in the region is set to grow, and its potential involvement in Syria's reconstruction could shape the country's future for years to come.
