Competitors of Zohran Mamdani Face a Predicament Similar to Prisoner's Dilemma Scenario

Tomorrow marks the start of the New York City general election season, and the race for the mayoral seat is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in the city's modern era.

Ingrid Lewis-Martin, the former chief advisor to Mayor Eric Adams, was arrested on four bribery-related conspiracy indictments this week. The charges come on top of last year's bribery indictments Lewis-Martin faced. She is alleged to have received $50,000 in exchange for steering emergency migrant contracts and fast-tracking a permit for a Queens karaoke bar.

Meanwhile, Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee, has vowed to remain in the race. Sliwa, known for his "Protect Animals" ballot line, aims to maintain his 28 percent share of the vote from 2021, plus potentially a few points from his ballot line.

On the Democratic side, Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, has steady momentum from his primary upset. Mamdani's campaign registered 37,000 voters in the two weeks prior to the primary registration deadline. A poll released on Wednesday showed that Mamdani would trail behind former governor Andrew Cuomo if Cuomo's main rivals drop out, with Cuomo winning 52 to 41 percent.

However, if all three main rivals—Cuomo, Adams, and Sliwa—remain in the race, Mamdani is almost certain to win, but each retains a small chance.

The Manhattan Institute's focus group of 11 New Yorkers revealed that "soft" Mamdani supporters have serious reservations about him. Money is starting to pour into the race, with the primary election demonstrating that money matters less than social media stardom and volunteer boots on the ground.

Candidates for the New York City mayoral race who choose to drop out could influence the election by redistributing their supporters among remaining contenders, potentially altering voter dynamics. For example, Jim Walden recently withdrew from the race, which may impact the voting landscape.

Adams and his campaign have been embroiled in two new corruption-related incidents. Adams has demonstrated some acumen in recent posts on Instagram and TikTok, while Sliwa has shown his social-media followers videos of him approaching the city's street homeless and cleaning parks. Cuomo is attempting a twofold strategy, sporting short sleeves in one-on-one talks with small-business owners while also holding suited press conferences.

Sliwa spoke with Manhattan Institute scholars last week about his vision for New York, decrying bail reform and supporting President Donald Trump's recent executive order discouraging the elimination of cash bail.

The pro-Cuomo Fix the City PAC raised $1.26 million in a week, while Mamdani's campaign took in $1.05 million. Many new registrants came from heavily South Asian neighborhoods and have backgrounds that resemble Mamdani's.

If some of the main rivals step aside, Mamdani faces tougher odds. But with the race heating up and voters largely having made up their minds, the next few weeks are sure to be exciting as the candidates continue to campaign and make their cases to the people of New York City.

Competitors of Zohran Mamdani Face a Predicament Similar to Prisoner's Dilemma Scenario