Construction of low-carbon buildings made modular, reminiscent of Lego blocks, advocated by Flyvbjerg for sustainable development.

=====================================================

In a bid to revolutionize the construction industry, new Cross-Laminated Timber (CLT) plants are being built in Australia, Canada, and the United States with a focus on automation and standardization. This shift towards mass timber is being heralded as a means to cut carbon emissions, speed up schedules, and reduce costs.

The key to the success of mass timber lies in its modularity. CLT panels and glulam beams, which are factory-made to high tolerances, can be transported to sites as standardized blocks, much like Lego bricks. This modularity enables adaptive reuse and vertical extensions, extending the life of existing assets.

Professor Michael Barnard, a renowned expert in studying why large projects fail and offering solutions rooted in data and modularity, believes that if governments, industry, and financiers embrace the potential of mass timber for true modularity, timber could indeed become the Lego of construction. Barnard co-authored the multiple-chart topping non-fiction book, "How Big Things Get Done," alongside Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner.

Modularity can also help address the chronic problem of optimism bias by anchoring forecasts in data from similar projects. By using Reference Class Forecasting (RCF), builders and planners can compare new projects to the growing database of completed timber buildings, helping to close the gap between planned and actual outcomes in construction.

The concept of adding new stories to old concrete buildings without overloading foundations is already being proven in projects in Melbourne and Rotterdam. Lightweight CLT floors and glulam frames make this possible, offering a sustainable solution for urban development.

Governments specifying that projects should use standardized timber systems where possible will support the shift towards modularity. If public procurement rewards modular repeatability, it will reinforce the Lego principle. Lenders and insurers can also play a role by recognizing the lower risk of modular systems and pricing premiums accordingly.

Carney's Canadian housing initiative could be a proving ground for the approach of standardized timber systems with architectural variety and integration of public amenities, green spaces, and local design input. This approach could pave the way for a more sustainable and efficient future in construction.

In conclusion, the future of construction looks promising with the adoption of mass timber and its emphasis on modularity. Treating CLT panels and glulam beams as Lego bricks can make projects easier to plan, build, and scale, leading to a more efficient and sustainable construction industry.

Construction of low-carbon buildings made modular, reminiscent of Lego blocks, advocated by Flyvbjerg for sustainable development.