Could Climate Warming Promote Wildfires in the Northeastern Regions?

The Northeast, known for its lush forests and mild climate, is facing a new threat: wildfires. Climate models have yet to account for the ways invasive species are transforming the ecosystem and fire behavior in the region.

A recent reminder from the U.N. panel of climate scientists underscores the fact that there's still time to change course. In the meantime, researchers are shedding light on the potential risks posed by wildfires in the Northeast.

Invasive species like bark beetles and spongy moths are causing concern. These pests weaken trees, making them more fuel for fires. This, coupled with the Northeast's abundance of forest fuel, could make wildfires more dangerous. The region has faced historic drought conditions since 2000, creating drier forest conditions in some areas, further increasing the risk of wildfires.

Controlled fires are being suggested as a solution to reduce fire risk and create healthy forest communities. This approach, once used by northeastern Indigenous groups, could help manage the landscape and prevent larger, more destructive wildfires.

However, the future of wildfires in the Northeast remains uncertain. Scientists disagree on whether these fires may resemble those out West or when they could happen, but they agree that more wildfires are probable and a cause for concern. A paper published in Nature Communications predicts an increase in wildfires due to an increase in lightning-caused wildfires in the 2090s.

The potential danger of wildfires in the Northeast is not just a scientific concern. It's the premise of Apple TV+'s new sci-fi series, Extrapolations. In the show, wildfires reach New York in the year 2037, a chilling depiction of a future where climate change threatens to bring fire back in a way it hasn't existed before: alongside homes and buildings that know nothing of it.

The show's creator, Scott Z. Burns, and stars Meryl Streep and Kit Harington bring a compelling narrative to the table, but the real-life implications are far more serious. Research suggests that much of the region used to burn in 8-50 year intervals, but with the arrival of European colonizers, the Northeast's fire regime ended, and fire suppression started.

The future of humanity is still dependent on changing course to prevent the scenarios depicted in shows like Extrapolations. As the planet's temperature exceeds the Paris Agreement's goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial temperatures and reaches nearly 2.6 degrees Celsius by 2070 in the show, it's clear that action is needed to mitigate the risks of wildfires and other climate-related disasters.

One thing is certain: wildfires are no longer a distant threat for the Northeast. The Adirondack Mountains in New York, shown ablaze in the first episode of the series, serve as a stark reminder of the potential consequences of inaction.