Dangerous tropical heat wave conditions projected to last for six months of the year by 2100, according to research findings

In a recent study published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, a team of researchers from Harvard and the University of Washington have issued a stark warning about the rising risk of extreme heat in tropical regions. The study suggests that anthropogenic CO2 emissions will increase global exposure to dangerous heat environments in the coming decades.

The researchers used historic climate data, future projections of population and economic growth, and carbon emission scenarios to estimate global temperatures. According to the study, tropical regions including Northern Australia could experience extremely hot weather most days of the year by the end of the decade. In the tropics, up to half of the days in a year will have temperatures reaching or surpassing 39.4°C.

In the global Heat Index, a metric combining air temperature and humidity to quantify the actual heat exposure in human beings, the "extremely dangerous" heat index threshold (51°C) will likely be exceeded on more than 15 days each year in tropical regions. Extreme heat will also occur three to 10 times as often in western Europe, the US, China, and Japan, according to the study.

The difference between the two case scenarios (Paris Agreement vs no action) is described as "night and day." If the world fails to limit carbon emissions to meet the Paris Agreement, the risk of dangerous heat occurring across the tropics will likely increase by 50-100%.

The health consequences of regular very high temperatures, particularly for the elderly, poor, and outdoor workers, will be profound and require a basic reorientation to the risks of extreme heat. The study does not, however, provide information on the potential impacts of these extreme heat events on ecosystems, agriculture, or infrastructure.

The study was authored by Im, Eun-Soon, Moyer, Elisabeth J., and others, and was created in 2020. Lucas Vargas Zeppetello, one of the lead authors, stated that the difference between limiting carbon emissions to meet the Paris Agreement and not doing so is "hugely consequential for billions of people, primarily throughout the global south."

It's important to note that the study does not provide specific data or visuals for local temperature change across months in 2100, as represented in Image 1. Furthermore, the study does not specify whether the increase in extreme heat events is limited to certain seasons or occurs year-round.

As the world continues to grapple with the challenges of climate change, this study serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for action to limit carbon emissions and protect vulnerable populations from the impacts of extreme heat.

Dangerous tropical heat wave conditions projected to last for six months of the year by 2100, according to research findings