Decrease in travel to Belarus and Russia observed from Latvia
In the first five months of 2023, traffic across the borders of Latvia and Belarus has seen a significant decrease, with both arrivals and departures down compared to last year. This trend is particularly noticeable at the Grebņeva and Pāternieki border crossing points.
At Grebņeva, there has been a 35% drop in arrivals and a 9% decline in departures. Similarly, Pāternieki, the only remaining border crossing point with Belarus, has seen a 35% decrease in arrivals and a 23% decrease in departures.
The customs administration plays a crucial role in these changes. Approximately 5% of shipments are subject to in-depth checks, and Colonel Rinalds Belijs of the State Border Guard's Border and Immigration Control Administration has concluded that overall cargo flows have shrunk.
Colonel Belijs also believes that Moldovan carriers may be making a detour through Belarus to cross the Russian border due to intensive border checks on both the Latvian and Russian sides. One such carrier, "Transauto", is suspected to have shifted its route since the imposition of sanctions, crossing through the Belarusian border to Russia.
The impact of these procedures and sanctions on border traffic is substantial. Latvia has one of the highest numbers of detected violations in the area of sanctions. It has also been prohibited to stay in Latvia with light vehicles registered in Russia or Belarus, but there are no specific observations as to which country's number plates these cars have switched to.
Interestingly, the flow of arrivals through Terehova, a Russian border crossing point, has seen a slight decrease in arrivals (6%) but an increase in departures (5%).
In a bid to prevent potential smuggling of sanctioned goods, the customs administration checks documents for all cargo travelling through Latvia. However, it is not possible to physically check all cargo, and the administration is working towards risk prevention. It is possible that sanctioned goods are being transported to Russia with a fictitious destination country, such as Kazakhstan.
On a positive note, since the introduction of sanctions, Latvia's exports to several Central Asian countries have increased. Additionally, the number of trucks registered in Serbia has also increased, suggesting potential rerouting of cargo traffic.
As the situation evolves, it will be interesting to see how these changes in border traffic continue to unfold.
