Escalating Conflicts in the Horn of Africa Region
In a significant move in 2018, the federal government of Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a peace agreement, recognising Eritrean sovereignty over the contested town of Badme. This marked a turning point in the relations between the two countries, which had been strained since the border war of 1998-2000.
However, the road to lasting peace appears to be fraught with challenges. The most likely scenario, according to analysts, is a period of fragile peace, potentially leading to a proxy war between Ethiopia and Eritrea in the Tigray region.
A less optimistic scenario involves continued tension, with Ethiopia seeking access to the sea without directly challenging the sovereignty of its neighbours, a goal that may require successful international mediation.
The tension between the federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) reached a boiling point in November 2020, after the TPLF attacked the Northern Command of the Ethiopian National Defense Force. This escalation followed the TPLF's defiance of the federal government's rule to postpone elections due to the pandemic, by holding regional elections in Tigray in 2020.
As a result of this conflict, the TPLF remains excluded from representation in Ethiopia's parliament, as stipulated by the Pretoria Agreement of 2022. The agreement also determined the disarmament of the TPLF and the withdrawal of foreign forces from Tigray.
Despite this, Eritrean forces remain present in Tigray, and the Eritrean regime has connections with Amhara rebels, specifically the Fano militias. This raises concerns about the potential for continued involvement of external forces in the internal conflicts of Ethiopia.
The TPLF, a political party in Tigray, views this situation as a politically charged compromise that undermines Tigrayan interests. The TPLF is split into two irreconcilable factions, with one favouring reconciliation with the federal government and the other considering an allegiance with Eritrea against the Abiy Ahmed regime.
It is worth noting that Ethiopia maintains close ties with China and Turkey, two nations with substantial investments in the region and a strong interest in avoiding instability in the Horn of Africa.
In a bid to further stabilise the region, the president of Eritrea, Isaias Afewerki, organised a trilateral meeting between Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt in October 2024. The outcome of this meeting and its impact on the complex situation in the Horn of Africa remains to be seen.
