EU elections center around engaging voter participation

In the upcoming European election campaign, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is expected to make a significant impact through digital means, shaping the discourse in unprecedented ways. This development comes amidst a backdrop of growing skepticism among Germans about the effectiveness of democracy in solving problems.

The election campaigns are poised to differ significantly from previous ones, with parties and alliances such as the "Bündnis Gemeinsam & Solidarisch gegen Rechts Reutlingen und Tübingen" actively opposing the AfD's influence. These groups reject normalization of AfD positions through dialogue and instead organize public actions to prevent their foothold, especially in digital and public spaces. Initiatives like #AfDnee focus on digital fact-checking campaigns and social media outreach, countering misinformation spread by the AfD and supporting democratic awareness online.

The current federal government's approval ratings are at an all-time low, and the AfD's presence puts pressure on political parties. This pressure is further intensified by disinformation campaigns, especially from Russia, which are strengthening the political dynamics in the European election, favoring the AfD. Since 2019, democratic parties have struggled to keep pace with the rapid development of social media platforms and have not found an answer to the diversified social media environment.

In response, traditional agenda-setting by other parties, coupled with mobilization-focused campaigns that emphasize the importance of voting, could prove to be a promising strategy. The Greens, for instance, achieved their best result ever in the last European election, while the SPD and Union had their worst results. Mobilization is crucial for all parties in the European election, and the risk of a poor result due to low mobilization is lower for the Greens than for other governing parties.

However, democratic parties may need to give greater importance to classic media and advertising to offset their strategic weakness on social media in the short term. The AfD has significantly invested in the expansion of its content networks and TikTok accounts, achieving considerable reach. Representatives of the Greens were more frequent victims of political violence than representatives of all other democratic parties combined, further highlighting the need for traditional media strategies.

The electoral landscape is not equal for all parties. The parties do not have the same starting conditions for the upcoming European election campaign, as they face different realities due to disinformation and violence. Ursula von der Leyen as EU Commission President could potentially give the CDU/CSU an advantage in the European election.

Voter turnout in European elections is traditionally low, and opposition and protest parties tend to perform better in such elections. As the campaign unfolds, it will be interesting to see how these factors play out and which parties emerge victorious in the battle of ideas and mobilization.