Expanding Chinese Presence Across South Asia
In the dynamic world of South Asian politics, the relationships between nations are undergoing a significant shift. One of the key players, India, finds itself in a delicate balance as it navigates its influence in the region.
While other South Asian countries, such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, are likely to utilise their relationships with China as a counterbalance to India's influence, they are cautious about fully aligning with either China or Pakistan in a way that could potentially isolate India. This strategic manoeuvring is a response to India's historically influential role in the region, but the current economic growth rate in India falls short of what is needed to effectively compete with China in providing support and incentives to neighbouring countries.
One such country that is rebuilding its relations with India is the Maldives, under President Mohamed Muizzu. After previously campaigning against New Delhi's long-standing influence in the country, the focus has now shifted to both security and economic matters.
Pakistan, however, is likely to remain China's closest ally due to its own self-defined rivalry with India. This alliance is further strengthened by Pakistan's participation in China's One Belt One Road Initiative (BRI), a program in which India is not involved and views with suspicion due to concerns over Chinese influence in the region.
India's recent exception to its policy of deploying troops only under a United Nations mandate, specifically within South Asia to assist Bhutan in securing its border with China, is a testament to its growing assertiveness in the region. However, India needs to implement long-overdue economic reforms and modernise its military to confidently project hard power in its region and beyond, a scenario that requires time, financing, and strategic decisions, making it the least likely in the immediate future.
China, India's primary rival, presents New Delhi with a range of challenges stemming from Chinese economic, military, and technological growth. Recognising this geopolitical edge, China has recently scaled back its investments in South Asia.
In the face of these challenges, India is likely to maintain its current policy, believing that its neighbours will have to acknowledge its role due to geographical realities. India is returning to its traditional strategy of multi-alignment, a strategy that could prove crucial in the complex dance of diplomacy that is the South Asian political landscape.
In a recent development, Bangladesh, under the interim government of Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, has turned to Beijing for billions in aid and infrastructure projects following the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina amid protests against her authoritarianism and corruption in 2024. This shift in allegiance underscores the delicate balance of power in South Asia, a balance that is constantly shifting and evolving.
As the region continues to navigate these complexities, the future of South Asian politics promises to be an intriguing and dynamic spectacle.
