Expanding Influence of the Wagner Group in the Sahel: Implications for Anti-Terrorism Efforts in the Region
In the heart of West Africa, the small nation of Burkina Faso has made a significant strategic pivot, replacing French counterterrorism forces with the Russian Wagner Group in 2023. This move, driven by a broader shift away from French influence and towards closer ties with Russia, has raised concerns about the country's future and the wider implications for regional stability.
The decision to bring in the Wagner Group, a private military company (PMC), has sparked debate among analysts who predict that Burkina Faso may replace the military support of French forces with the Russian group in the coming months. However, this shift comes amid persistent insurgent violence and governance challenges across the Sahel region.
Despite Russian support, terrorist and insurgent groups continue to carry out major attacks that restrict government control outside major towns, indicating ongoing insecurity. This insecurity contributes to new waves of migration and threatens the spread of violence and extremist networks into neighboring countries.
One of the potential repercussions of this shift is increased instability and violence. The military junta's crackdown on dissidents and civil society, along with increased authoritarian measures under the guise of counterterrorism, have led to reduced press freedom, conscription of civilians into security operations, and impunity for abuses.
Another concern is the deterioration of human rights and democratic backsliding. The shift intensifies Russia’s role as a key security partner in West Africa, challenging traditional Western influence, especially France and the US. This complicates international cooperation and could provoke geopolitical competition affecting regional stability.
The partnership with the Wagner Group and Moscow rather than Western states will also reduce pressure on the regime to respect democratic norms such as press freedom and political dissent. In neighboring Mali, which has already welcomed Wagner forces, civilian deaths skyrocketed as the group targeted Fulani tribes and herders seen as sympathetic to the militant Islamists.
The brutal methods of the Wagner Group have been on display in Ukraine, where its contract soldiers carry out indiscriminate attacks with no regard for civilian life. The presence of foreign mercenaries will reduce pressure on Traoré to implement promised elections during 2024, diminishing chances for democracy in Burkina Faso.
However, taking constructive steps towards sustainable peace in Burkina Faso is more important than ever due to its significance in global security. The nation remains crucial to international security as it prevents Salafi-jihadist groups from securing another safe haven for planning attacks abroad and inspiring similar ventures globally.
Wagner has managed to expand Moscow’s geopolitical influence in the region and produces slick propaganda to promote itself and its anti-Western narrative. Western states involved in the Sahel crisis should avoid paternalistic and neocolonial optics, be cautious of Wagner's misinformation tactics, and take measures to counter Russian anti-Western propaganda.
Sustainable peace in Burkina Faso requires multilateral cooperation, including other African states, with a steadfast commitment to respect for human rights and an openness to negotiate with ethnic and militant leaders. The views expressed in this article do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.
This article was written by Broderick McDonald, an associate fellow at the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, and Guy Fiennes, a postgraduate researcher at the University of Oxford, as well as an OSINT analyst and a resettlement support worker at Asylum Welcome.
- The replacement of French counterterrorism forces with the Russian Wagner Group in Burkina Faso has led to concerns about the country's future security and regional stability.
- Analysts predict that Burkina Faso may replace the military support of French forces with the Russian Wagner Group, potentially increasing instability and violence.
- Despite Russian support, terrorists and insurgent groups continue to carry out attacks in Burkina Faso, restricting government control and contributing to new waves of migration.
- The partnership with the Wagner Group and Moscow could reduce pressure on the Burkina Faso regime to respect democratic norms, and has led to increased authoritarian measures and human rights abuses.
- The brutality of the Wagner Group has been on display in Ukraine, where its contract soldiers carry out indiscriminate attacks with no regard for civilian life.
- Sustainable peace in Burkina Faso requires multilateral cooperation, including other African states, with a steadfast commitment to respect for human rights and an openness to negotiate with ethnic and militant leaders.
