Federal job applications showing a plateau following an initial surge, with ongoing risks still present in the job market for government positions
In a recent report by economist Cory Stahle of Indeed Hiring Lab, it was revealed that the number of applications from federal employees on the job search website Indeed increased by 56% between January and May. However, this growth seems to have leveled off in May, raising concerns about the current state of the federal job market.
One factor contributing to this trend is the decrease in job listings for various roles within the federal government. According to the report, listings for other roles have fallen by 0.6% in the same timeframe. This could potentially be attributed to the anticipated cuts to the federal workforce, including the "deferred resignation program" through which eligible employees can stay on paid leave through Sept. 30.
The report also highlights a significant drop in applications from federal employees at the Defense Department. In May, applications from federal employees decreased by 4%, following a steady spike that began in January. This decrease could be due to several reasons, one of which is the speculated departure of Elon Musk from his role at the Department of Defense (DODE), as some sources attribute the leveling off in May in the number of applications from federal employees to this event.
Officials at the Defense Department now need approval from DODE before making new unclassified awards for IT consulting, management services, and advisory and assistance support contracts. This could potentially impact the job market for federal workers with expertise in these areas, as they may find it more challenging to secure new roles.
Interestingly, despite the potential challenges in the federal job market, companies like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, among the businesses in the top 25 of the fiscal 2023 top 100 contractors report, continue to thrive. Similarly, consulting firms Booz Allen Hamilton and Deloitte are also among the top 25 contractors.
However, no publicly available information was found regarding which companies from the top 25 government contract recipients in 2023 reported the largest number of job postings on Indeed after President Trump took office in January 2020.
The Trump administration's efforts to reduce spending on consulting contracts, including at the Defense Department, could potentially impact the job market for these companies. Tens of thousands of government employees have reportedly taken a deferred resignation, and it is unclear whether the labor market can absorb this influx of specialized, highly educated workers.
The report does not specify the number of federal employees who started applications on the job search website Indeed in May. It also does not specify the number of federal employees who have recently separated from government service or are looking to do so.
The judge's order blocking RIFs (Reductions in Force) at many agencies could potentially be reversed, which could further impact the federal job market. The decline in top contractor job postings negatively impacts federal workers actively seeking new roles, as they may find it more challenging to secure new positions in the current climate.
Despite these challenges, federal workers with knowledge of government operations and the work performed by these companies are potentially strong candidates for other roles, especially within the private sector. As the federal job market continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how these trends develop in the coming months.
