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France faces another crisis, an avoidable predicament

Inquired by France's wartime leader and former President Charles de Gaulle: "How can one rule a nation with 246 different types of cheese?" Now over six decades later, it seems that governing such a country might indeed be an impossible task.

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France once again finds itself in a state of crisis. The current situation was not necessary.
France once again finds itself in a state of crisis. The current situation was not necessary.

France faces another crisis, an avoidable predicament

France Faces Political Crisis Amidst Mounting Debt and Instability

France is grappling with a political crisis, as public trust in the political class has collapsed and the country is on the brink of having its fourth prime minister depart in 20 months. The instability in Paris has provided opportunities for Russian President Vladimir Putin and US counterpart Donald Trump to exploit Europe's perceived weaknesses.

The political climate in France is marked by deep division and instability. This can be traced back to President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call a snap election last year, which has led to a profound political deadlock. According to senior analyst Dominique Moïsi, there is no clear path towards a new system or a regime change in France.

The current favorite to succeed President Macron as Prime Minister is SΓ©bastien Lecornu, the outgoing Defense Minister who previously ran for the position and is seen as capable of bridging divides in the fragmented French Parliament. However, the political landscape could drastically change if the current prime minister, Francois Bayrou, fails to pass a confidence vote in parliament.

Bayrou is pushing for an unpopular 44 billion euros savings plan that includes scrapping two public holidays and freezing spending. This savings plan, he claims, is a matter of "national survival" due to France's spiraling debt. If Bayrou fails to pass the confidence vote, pressure on President Macron to resign will increase.

Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally party, is demanding that Macron dissolve parliament following Bayrou's potential departure. A recent poll suggests the National Rally would emerge as the leading party in a snap parliamentary election, with the left coming in second and the center trailing behind. Fresh elections, if called, would likely strengthen the National Rally party.

France's borrowing costs are climbing, with ten-year bond yields now above those of Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Italy. Each hour of each day and each night, France's debt grows by 12 million euros extra. This financial instability is occurring at a critical time, with ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

It is worth noting that Macron was elected without the backing of either of the main established political parties in 2017. France has no tradition of coalition-building, its politics being shaped by a presidency-dominated system. The far right is expected to take power in France, either now or in the 2027 presidential poll, but with little expectation of solving the country's malaise.

The political instability in France is a cause for concern, not just domestically, but also internationally. The departure of the current prime minister, Francois Bayrou, is contingent on a confidence vote in parliament. The confidence vote, if lost, would set a record under the Fifth Republic and leave President Emmanuel Macron weaker than ever.

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