Global commerce: could the significant separation be imminent?

In a world marked by increasing geopolitical tensions, the evolution of global trade relations since the late 2010s has been characterized by a dual phenomenon of relative weakening and fragmentation, according to a special report produced by Nathalie Dezeure, Head of Macro Research Europe.

The trade landscape is becoming increasingly fragmented, with more countries like Vietnam, Poland, and Mexico facilitating trade flows in this context. These non-aligned countries are increasingly becoming important players in bilateral trade with the United States and the EU, providing greater resilience to trade as intermediaries.

Europe's trade relations with China remain stable, but a real rupture has occurred in trade with Russia. In contrast, the acceleration in bilateral trade between the United States and Europe is particularly notable. The development of industrial policies aimed at supporting key sectors tends to dampen trade by promoting import substitution.

The emergence of non-aligned countries plays a crucial role in providing greater resilience to trade. The strengthening of Poland's position in intra-EU trade highlights a new dynamic in the region. China, Germany, the Netherlands, and Singapore play a significant role as "bridge countries" in the current development of global trade relations, as they foster the robustness and diversification of global trade through their central locations and extensive trade networks.

Trade between China and the United States has significantly declined, benefiting Europe and its regional partners, such as Mexico and Canada. The fragmentation of global trade remains modest on a global scale, but it is more pronounced in bilateral trade relationships.

Recent years have seen a gradual reorientation of trade within the EU, with Poland's position in intra-EU trade strengthening. The special report presents findings on the evolution of global trade relations in the post-COVID period.

Despite the proliferation of measures detrimental to trade, the relationship between trade and GDP growth remains stable. The upcoming U.S. elections on November 5 could further accelerate fragmentation and weaken trade flows if Donald Trump secures a second term.

The special report, presented by Nathalie Dezeure, confirms the evolution of global trade relations in this complex and evolving landscape. The report focuses on the stylized facts confirming the evolution of global trade relations, offering insights into the current trends and potential future developments in the global trade arena.