Global unrest in Indonesia follows a global trend, escalating as economic hardships persist - Phar Kim Beng, Luthfy Hamzah
In the heart of Southeast Asia, Indonesia, the largest economy and the cornerstone of ASEAN's credibility, finds itself grappling with unrest. The country, home to 270 million citizens, half of whom are youth, is experiencing a wave of discontent, as many find themselves locked in underemployment or precarious work, despite the nation's demographic potential.
This unrest is not a new phenomenon. History has shown us that people rise when daily life becomes intolerable and when leaders appear immune to the suffering of the governed. Examples of such episodes include the Brixton uprising in England in 1981, the Yellow Vests movement in France in 2018, the Chilean protests in 2019, the Arab Spring in 2010, and the Russian Revolution in 1917.
The protests in Indonesia are not just about subsidies or lower taxes; they are demanding recognition, fairness, and a government that shares in their sacrifices. The leaders of the Indonesian government, President Subianto Prabowo and Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who have been in office since October 20, 2024, announced a salary increase of US$6,000 per month for themselves, a move that has been perceived as a betrayal by the citizens.
Indonesia now faces three structural forces driving the unrest: youth discontent due to underemployment, fiscal imbalances, and elite insensitivity. The cost of living in Indonesia has overwhelmed daily survival for many, leading to societal snap points, especially when elected representatives increased their living allowances to $6,000 while their salaries were $9,500. Fiscal austerity measures have led to budget cuts for ministries and sharp tax hikes for local governments, further burdening households.
The present unrest in Indonesia is part of a century-old rhythm, reminding us of a global truth: when people cannot afford to live, they will no longer agree to be governed. Delay in addressing grievances can lead to escalation, as movements evolve from economic protests into systemic rejection. Early relief measures can help defuse unrest.
History warns that few regimes believe they are on the verge of collapse until it happens, emphasizing the importance of recognizing patterns of economic deprivation undermining legitimacy. Repression may temporarily quiet protests, but it hardens anger. Credible reforms - economic and political - are the real antidote to protests.
The strategic implications suggest that addressing the root causes of the unrest, such as youth discontent, fiscal imbalances, and elite insensitivity, is crucial to prevent further escalation. Asean's cohesion depends on its largest member projecting stability at home to maintain its claim to centrality in regional affairs. The choice for Indonesia's leaders is between heeding lessons, sharing the burdens of austerity, and cushioning the vulnerable, or continuing down a path where every price hike and symbol of privilege adds fuel to the fire. The outcome will determine not only Indonesia's future but ASEAN's credibility in a turbulent world.
