GOP tests its new Latino gains following map approval in Texas
In a move that has sparked controversy, Governor Greg Abbott has signed a new congressional district map into law, which includes a redrawing of the community of Seguin, a move that has been criticised as part of a mid-decade redistricting effort by state Republicans.
The shift in the 35th congressional district will see it move south to a four-county area that includes Seguin, which will become 60% Latino. This change poses a critical test for Republicans, as the new GOP map could solidify the party's grip on Texas for years to come.
Tomas Hernandez, a local business owner and political commentator, argues that Democrats have taken Texas Latino voters for granted, and that Republicans have given them a new opening. He urges Democrats to "wake up" and be active, encouraging voters to participate in elections.
Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston politics professor, notes that history may not be on Democrats' side, as the party effectively lost control of the state in the 1990s. Rottinghaus suggests that the districts Republicans are drawing to maximise their gains include suburban, exurban, and rural areas.
However, the shifting landscape could present opportunities for Democrats. Greg Casar, who previously tried to represent the Democratic Party in the new Texas congressional district 37, is running to represent the redrawn 37th congressional district in Austin under the new Texas map. According to Equis Research, a Latino polling organization, roughly a third of Latinos who supported Trump last year are not set on voting for a Republican during next year's midterms.
The new Texas map adds five districts that are expected to be safe Republican seats. Longtime Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn is confident about the party's gains with Latino voters, citing the increasing radicalism and extremism of Democrats at the national level.
However, Rottinghaus refers to the new maps as a "dummymander," suggesting that they could inadvertently hurt Republicans. He argues that the maps could lead to the election of more Democrats, particularly in urban areas, due to the concentration of Democratic voters in these districts.
The political environment is hotter than ever due to a struggling economy and high grocery prices. Suppliers are charging more, and laborers are leaving due to the Trump administration's intensified deportation push. In last year's election, President Trump took 48% of the Hispanic vote nationwide, a sharp uptick from the 36% share he won in 2020.
As the midterm elections approach, the battle for control of Texas's congressional seats is heating up, with both parties vying for the support of the state's largest demographic group, Hispanic voters. Four of the seats are Hispanic-majority, testing the GOP's gains with the state's largest demographic group. The new maps could determine the outcome of these critical races, and the future of Texas politics.
