Government assertions scrutinized concerning GDP expansion and inflation rates

In the past decade, India's inflation rate has shown a mixed trend, with some years witnessing a decrease and others an increase. According to the Consumer Price Indices (CPI), India's overall inflation has been on a steady decline since 2011, reaching a record low of 1.46% in June 2017. However, this downward trend has been reversed since then, with the latest official estimate for August 2025 standing at 2.07%.

The government has implemented several measures to curb inflation, particularly in food items. These measures include imposing duties on exports, increasing allocation for the Price Stabilization Fund, and imposing stock holding limits. The Food Corporation of India was designated as the nodal agency for pulses procurement, and small farmers' cooperatives were supplemented in this effort. In addition, the Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for kharif pulses were increased for 2016-17, and a bonus of Rs. 425/- per quintal was given to farmers.

The trend of food inflation in India has also been on a decline, dropping from 9.19% in 2014 to 3% in 2018. This downward trend, however, is not entirely accurate, as the absolute numbers are slightly off the mark in the claim.

The government's efforts have led to a significant decrease in overall inflation rates. From 8.48% in 2014, the inflation rate dropped to 4.58% in 2018. This consistent decrease, however, was interrupted in 2016 when there was an abrupt rise in the inflation rate.

The economy's growth rate, as per the first advance estimates of National Income, is estimated at 7.2% during 2018-19, contrary to an earlier claim of a robust GDP growth rate of 7.4% for FY 2018-19. This story is part of a larger series on the 4-years of the Modi government, funded by the International Fact Checking Network (IFCN).

The World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report states that inflation in India and Pakistan increased in 2018 to counter the effects of currency depreciation, rising energy prices, and domestic capacity constraints. The BJP government has published several infographics highlighting the macroeconomic indicators of the country, including claims about the robust GDP growth rate. However, the claim of a GDP growth rate of 7.4% for FY 2018-19 has been found to be false.

[Image: Graph showing the YoY food inflation (based on Consumer Food Price Index - CFPI) since 2014]

[Infographic: Claims about the macroeconomic indicators of the country]