graph illustrates shifts in Donald Trump's approval ratings across states he previously won during the election
In the midst of his second term, President Donald Trump's approval rating continues to evolve, presenting a complex political landscape for the upcoming midterms in November 2026.
According to a recent YouGov survey, 39 percent of college-educated voters approve of Trump's job performance, while 56 percent disapprove. This figure represents an increase since June, highlighting a shifting political sentiment. However, the president's approval rating is still positive in 18 of the states he won in the November 2024 presidential election.
One poll suggests that Trump is gaining more traction with Hispanic voters, a crucial demographic that traditionally supports Democratic candidates. Yet, in key states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and his home state of Florida, Trump's approval rating has declined. National polls show that his approval rating stands at 47 percent, while 50 percent disapprove, according to a survey conducted by Quantus Insights.
Mark Shanahan, a U.S. politics professor at the University of Surrey in the U.K., emphasises that the GOP's fortunes are closely tied to Trump's. If his approval rating continues to be poor, it could negatively impact Republican candidates. Conversely, if Trump loses the trust of his base, it could mean trouble for his political acolytes, as they currently lack other advantages in the political landscape.
The ongoing Jeffrey Epstein case is causing dissatisfaction among Trump's base, particularly because he had previously promised to release related files. Shanahan notes that the longer the case continues, the more it could negatively impact all Republican candidates.
In addition to the Epstein case, a few key policy issues, including tariffs, have angered some voters. For instance, Trump's popularity has declined by 10 percentage points in Utah, from a +21 approval rating to +11, and has fallen by 7 points in Oklahoma, from its initial +34 percentage points in January.
The Democratic Party benefits the most from Trump's declining popularity in the 13 states he won in November 2024, as opposition to Trump's agenda is used strategically by Democrats to gain favorable conditions for upcoming congressional elections. Newsweek has created a map highlighting the president's approval ratings in states he won. The states with underwater approval ratings include Arizona, Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Whether Trump's popularity declines enough to sink the Republican Party in upcoming elections is still uncertain. Handling potential splits in his base and securing votes from all states in the nation will be important when voters head to the midterms in November 2026.
