Identified system: A novel platform designed to recognize and prioritize potential hazards to American infrastructures

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has developed a new platform, the MIT Socio-Environmental Triage (MST) platform, which is now publicly available. This innovative tool is designed to help identify and address potential risks to critical infrastructure, public health, and the environment in the continental United States.

The MST platform, developed by the MIT Joint Program's Multi-Sector Dynamics (MSD) researchers, offers a comprehensive approach to analyzing present-day risks related to water, land, climate, the economy, energy, demographics, health, and infrastructure. One of the key features of the MST platform is its ability to identify risk hot spots where multiple risks compound, such as combined flood and poverty risks in the lower Mississippi River basin.

Joint Program Research Scientist Xiang Gao is applying a high-resolution U.S. water-quality model to calculate a location-specific, water-quality index over more than 2,000 river basins in the country. This modeling approach accounts for interactions among climate, agriculture, and socioeconomic systems, allowing for various water-quality measures to be obtained.

Climate change is amplifying the frequency and intensity of extreme events in the United States and around the world. Hurricane Henri, for instance, delivered record rainfall in New York City in August. MIT Joint Program Research Scientist Jennifer Morris is demonstrating how the risk triage platform can be used to assess energy and economic risks at the regional level by combining existing U.S. datasets and the IGSM framework.

The ongoing drought in California is overburdening aquifers and extending statewide water restrictions. Research affiliate Alyssa McCluskey is using the risk triage tool to pinpoint potential risks to roadways, waterways, and power distribution lines from flooding, extreme temperatures, population growth, and other stressors.

Transportation and energy infrastructure development and expansion can threaten critical wildlife habitats, according to research affiliate Alyssa McCluskey. The MST platform can help identify these potential threats and suggest cost-effective solutions for mitigation and adaptation.

Joint Program Research Scientist Angelo Gurgel is analyzing how climate change, population growth, changing diets, crop-yield improvements, and other forces that drive land-use change at the global level may impact land use in the United States. Subsequent versions of the MST platform will incorporate projections based on the MIT Joint Program's Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework to help uncover cost-effective pathways for mitigating and adapting to a wide range of environmental and economic risks.

No concerning tipping points are projected to arise throughout the period between now and 2050 in U.S. land-use trends, according to the analysis by Joint Program Research Scientist Angelo Gurgel. However, there is a critical need to make infrastructure more resilient due to the growing populations and economies threatened by extreme events.

The MST platform's potential applications extend beyond water and land use. MIT Joint Program research affiliate Sebastian Eastham is using an MSD approach to study air pollution and public health, linking the IGSM with an atmospheric chemistry model. Using the risk triage tool, research affiliate Sebastian Eastham can rapidly identify cardiovascular and other air-pollution-induced disease risk hot spots based on current population and air-quality data.

Multi-sector dynamics (MSD) is an emerging discipline that offers a promising solution to identify compounding risks and potential tipping points across interconnected natural and human systems. The MIT Joint Program has been developing MSD expertise and modeling tools since 2018, and this research is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as an ongoing project. The MST platform is a significant step forward in understanding and addressing the complex interplay between environmental, economic, and social factors in the United States.

Identified system: A novel platform designed to recognize and prioritize potential hazards to American infrastructures