Impact of the Ukraine War, as analysis by Carnegie Experts suggests

The world has witnessed significant changes in geopolitical dynamics a year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Europe's relationship with Russia has permanently altered, moving towards almost complete decoupling, with Germany leading this change, known as zeitenwende.

This shift has been prompted by the mutual perceptions of threat between the U.S.-led West and China, with Beijing fearing it could become the next target of a similar Western pressure campaign to disrupt its rise. The Russian invasion has intensified these fears, causing a heightened sense of insecurity.

The invasion has also seen former socialist-bloc countries, primarily the Baltic States and Poland, pushing the Ukraine agenda. This push has been met with support from the Biden administration, which has rallied support to democratic Ukraine, framing the struggle as a contest between democracies and authoritarian systems.

The war in Ukraine has added a new dimension to an already complex security and political crisis in West Africa, particularly in the countries of the Sahel. The conflict has raised concerns about the potential spillover effects of the crisis and the instability it could cause in the region.

Isaac Kardon, a senior fellow, describes the Russian invasion as an "epochal date" that ended the post-Cold War era and is an existential test for the international system. The war has forced policymakers to reconsider the need for emergency action in various sectors, including the energy sector.

The EU now faces the challenge of coming up with a real pathway for Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia to join the union, as well as a proper accession plan for the countries of the Western Balkans. The scale and breadth of the European response to the war have put economic statecraft to the test.

Several European countries, including Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, Finland, and Poland, have shifted away from political and military cooperation with Russia in recent years and instead developed closer collaboration with Ukraine, emphasizing support for Ukraine's sovereignty and security guarantees.

Many Western analysts and policymakers, including Biden himself, view the war as part of a larger normative contest between democracies and authoritarian states. However, few developing nations perceive Ukraine through the democracy-versus-autocracy lens and will not rally to a crusade pitting West and East. If some developing countries oppose Russian imperialism, it is the defense of sovereignty, not democracy, that motivates them.

The war has brought to the fore the many vulnerabilities of the Middle East and North Africa, pushing several countries to the brink of collapse. The success of U.S. policy in Europe serves as a potent reminder that any future Chinese aggression in Asia could provoke the same kind of response that punishes Beijing.

The centrality of the transatlantic relationship in responding to Russia's war is a reminder that the EU's stated goal of strategic autonomy is more of a lofty ambition than a reality. The war in Ukraine raises a major paradox and a profound dilemma centered around nuclear weapons, with nuclear weapons deterring escalation of conventional conflicts but also emboldening their possessors to enter armed conflicts they would otherwise probably avoid.

The UN retains unrivaled global legitimacy, thanks to its universal membership, binding charter, and authority over international peace and security. The war in Ukraine has forced the EU to take greater responsibility for its own defense and broken taboos about investing in security. East Asia remains at peace a year after Russia launched its war in Ukraine, but the question remains whether China can be deterred from attacking Taiwan.