Impact of Trump's Presidency on Modi's Strategic Relations with Xi and Putin: Will They Succeed? (Authored by K.C. Singh)

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) held its annual summit on August 31 and September 1, with significant discussions and developments shaping the future of India-China relations.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited China for the first time in seven years, marking a renewed effort to normalize relations between the two nations. The Modi-Xi meeting at the Tianjin summit had multiple dimensions, including discussions on the normalization of their relationship following the 2024 Galwan Sino-Indian military encounter.

India's strategic relations with the SCO have been strengthened, as it gained observer status in 2005 and full membership in 2017. This membership enables India to express its views and protect its interests in an organization spanning South and Central Asia. The SCO membership also provides India an opportunity to collaborate with countries like China, Russia, Pakistan, and others, towards a more stable and secure region.

However, China's ambitions to be a dominant global power, rivaling the US, may pose a challenge to India's aspirations. China is unlikely to support India's permanent membership in a reformed UN Security Council, and may continue to strengthen its strategic relations with India's neighbours like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, and others.

The trade gap between India and China is over $100 billion, with Indian exports lingering between $11.9 billion and $14.2 billion, while imports have increased significantly. India lacks the production capacity to replace cheap Chinese imports, especially raw materials or manufactured components. This trade imbalance is a significant challenge that India must address to achieve a more balanced and equitable relationship with China.

The US President Donald Trump's influence was felt at the SCO summit and bilateral meetings. The Modi-Xi meeting was held against the backdrop of President Trump's tariff onslaught, compelling strategic recalibration for both India and China. India is unlikely to abandon its outreach to Western countries, especially the US, including the Quad.

The success or failure of India's strategy towards China and the US will be revealed in the coming months. India and China have renewed cooperation within the BRICS New Development Bank, as proposed by China in the Tianjin Declaration during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. This cooperation reflects a step towards economic collaboration and a multipolar world order, with a focus on strengthening trade, investment, and financial autonomy from the West.

The Tianjin Declaration also includes India's condemnation of attacks by Israel and the US on Iran, and China's proposal for a Development Bank for the SCO. These developments indicate a more assertive and unified SCO, with a focus on regional security, economic cooperation, and geopolitical alignment.

The border dispute between India and China was discussed during the summit, with both leaders emphasizing the importance of peaceful resolution and mutual trust. However, the resolution of this long-standing issue remains a significant challenge that requires sustained dialogue and diplomacy.

In conclusion, the SCO summit marked a new era of cooperation and challenges for India-China relations. While there are significant opportunities for economic and strategic collaboration, there are also significant challenges that require careful diplomacy and strategic recalibration. The success of India's strategy towards China will be crucial in shaping the future of India's foreign policy and its role in the global order.

Impact of Trump's Presidency on Modi's Strategic Relations with Xi and Putin: Will They Succeed? (Authored by K.C. Singh)