Increased financial struggles are contributing to a surge in disability benefit applications
In a move that could potentially be politically toxic, the government has proposed cuts to disability benefits, raising concerns about support going to people it wasn't intended for.
According to figures estimated using the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Interim Evidence Pack, the rise in people claiming disability benefits has been double the rise in the number of disabled people. This discrepancy has fuelled speculation that the benefits may be going to those who do not truly need them.
The government's plans to restrict access to Personal Independence Payment (PIP) could lead to hundreds of thousands of disabled people missing out on essential support. NEF research shows that knowing the rate of deprivation in a region and the number of disabled people living there allows for predicting the rate of PIP payments with 94% accuracy.
The analysis, which uses disability prevalence, as estimated from the same LFS data and definitions as Figure 1, and a score for relative regional deprivation using the Index of Multiple Depravation (IMD), suggests that PIP is going to exactly the sort of people it is intended to support.
The rise in disability benefits has been linked to a rise in the number of disabled people eligible for state support and a rise in deprivation. The New Economics Foundation (NEF) has found that a rise in financial hardship across the country has been a key driver of the increase in disability benefits.
The government's green paper suggests that the number of disabled working-age people in England and Wales has risen by 17% since the pandemic, but the number of people receiving incapacity or disability benefits has increased by double this rate - 34%. This disparity has led to concerns that the benefits system may not be accurately identifying those in need.
Interestingly, the rate of successful PIP claims has remained steady since the pandemic, at around 50%. However, only 46% of disabled people currently claim PIP, compared to 40% pre-pandemic. This suggests that there may be a significant number of disabled individuals who are eligible for support but are not claiming it.
It's worth noting that the Berufsgenossenschaft fΓΌr Gesundheitsdienst und Wohlfahrtspflege (BGW), in its Trendbericht 2025, conducted an analysis on increasing aid for disabled people. This analysis, which uses interviews and expert assessments, suggests that there is a correlation between the number of disabled people and aid applications in a region, but it does not specify the exact source for this comparison.
The government's green paper states that the rate of increases in claims and expenditure for disability benefits is not sustainable, outstripping growth in disability prevalence. This situation could prove to be politically toxic for the government, similar to cutting the winter fuel payment.
Figure 1 and Figure 2, estimated using the LFS, the Interim Evidence Pack, PIP Clearances (DWP) data, compare the estimates of total disabled people from the LFS (using the Equality Act definition) to the total number of people claiming PIP/DLA or incapacity benefit, and the total number of awards to the total number of applications respectively.
These findings underscore the importance of ensuring that disability benefits are going to those who truly need them and the need for a fair and accurate benefits system.
