India Facing Three Pivotal Decisions in an Unpredictable Global Landscape (Syed Ata Hasnain)

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit China next week, marking his first trip to the country in seven years. The meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, scheduled on the sidelines of a security summit, aims to mend strained bilateral relations following violent border conflicts in 2020.

Amidst this geopolitical landscape, India's focus remains on ensuring economic growth. The country is keen to avoid any impact from sanctions, supply disruptions, or loss of investment confidence. History has shown that downturns can lead to breakthroughs in global politics, and India is poised to endure the current breakdown in relations with the US under President Trump, hoping to emerge with more, not fewer, options when the winds shift.

The writer, a retired lieutenant-general and a former GOC of the Srinagar-based 15 ("Chinar") Corps, emphasises that India's foreign policy should not be about choosing one option forever, but about steering carefully through turbulence, confident that calmer waters will return.

In this complex dance of diplomacy, India has always defined its policy by the big picture. It considers long-term US convergence despite short-term hostility, Russian continuity despite sanctions, and Chinese importance despite mistrust. Access to Western markets, discounted Russian oil and arms, and secure manufacturing supply chains from China are all crucial for India's development.

India's foreign policy also seeks to maintain operational ties with the US while awaiting a friendlier era. It aims to reassure Mr Putin that Russia remains valued despite sanctions, and cautiously probes the potential for reduced mistrust with China.

However, the writer cautions against overemphasising Mr Trump's embrace of Pakistan, considering it political theatre. India should, therefore, choose to ignore it.

In conclusion, India's resilience allows it to maintain ties with all three major powers - US, Russia, and China - while protecting its core interests. The task for India is not to choose one option forever, but to steer carefully through turbulence, confident that calmer waters will return.