Indias devastating heatwave became 30 to 100 times more probable due to climate change.

In the sweltering heat of March, South Asia witnessed an unprecedented heatwave that sent temperatures soaring to new highs. According to a recent report, this extreme weather event was made at least 30 times more likely by human-induced climate change.

The extreme Indian heatwave, which saw temperatures in some regions peak at 44C and the Indian capital New Delhi hit above 49C, has caused widespread suffering and fatalities. The scorching heat has also resulted in major crop losses due to subsequent droughts and wildfires, leading to a ban on wheat exports by the government to ensure national food security. Consequently, global wheat prices have risen by 6%.

The World Weather Attribution has published a rapid analysis of the event, which was conducted by scientific organizations such as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). They applied climate data analysis methodologies including historical temperature data assessment, intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) analysis, and modeling techniques to evaluate heatwave characteristics and frequency.

The analysis revealed that in a 2C global temperature increase scenario, these events would become another 2-20 times more likely than in 2022, and 0.5-1.5 C hotter, too. This underscores the urgent need for global action to combat climate change.

Krishna AchutaRao, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology in New Delhi, stated that the extreme Indian heatwave started early and lasted long, and it will happen more often as temperatures rise. Dr Fahad Saeed, one of the study's researchers and a climate scientist at the Climate Analytics group, added that the limits to adaptation are being breached for a large poor population of the region at the present level of global warming.

The ongoing heatwave has led to a surge in coal production and the operation of coal-fired power plants at full capacity. However, the use of coal to address the looming energy crisis in India is not a long-term solution, as it bypasses the primary cause of the emergency. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that intense heatwaves will become more frequent and more severe.

Climate change has increased the probability of an extreme heatwave occurring from once every 3,000 years to once in every 100 years. To keep pace with the increased energy demand, India has expanded coal production by a further 10% and ordered coal-fired power plants to operate at full capacity, undermining its decarbonisation efforts and renewable transition.

A separate study published by the UK's Met Office found that the climate crisis has made heatwaves 100 times more likely. If the world continues to add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, record high heatwaves will become even more frequent not just in South Asia, but around the globe, threatening millions more lives.

The India Coal Dilemma Amid Record-Breaking Heatwave might also be of interest. The world at large must drastically stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere to prevent the catastrophic consequences of climate change and secure a sustainable future for all.

Indias devastating heatwave became 30 to 100 times more probable due to climate change.