Input Awaits Catalysts' Action

In the realm of the global light chemical industry, Russia is making strategic moves to bolster its domestic production and reduce dependence on foreign imports.

Analysts have highlighted the advantage that Russian producers and distributors hold over their Chinese counterparts, primarily due to shorter distances within the EAEU, reduced internal container tariffs, and government support for road transportation. This advantage is expected to provide Russian companies with new export opportunities, particularly in anti-corrosion inhibitors and oilfield service packages, as Western brands withdraw from the EAEU and Central Asia.

By the end of 2024 and the first months of 2025, China's share in Russia's light chemical industry, in physical terms, stood at around 45%. However, in monetary terms, China's share did not exceed 28%, as reported by "HimMed". By 2025, domestic demand shifted to four segments with the highest import dependence: microelectronics reagents, materials for lithium-ion batteries, pharmaceutical substances, functional polymers, and additives.

In response to this trend, increasing the level of localization and forming new supply chains for low-tonnage products is one of the key areas of the "New Materials and Chemistry" national project. Low-tonnage chemicals are products with an annual output of up to 10,000 tons.

Dmitry Semagin, head of Rupec, considers catalysts for polymerization and polymer additives to be one of the most important niches for import substitution. SIBUR, a leading Russian chemical company, recently launched a plant for the production of hexene with a capacity of over 50,000 tons per year and plans to produce necessary catalysts for the domestic market based on it.

The shortage of in-demand low-tonnage chemicals in Russia may reach 500,000 tons by 2028. To address this deficit, experts suggest starting new projects in 2026, although details are currently unknown. New capacities of approximately 600,000 tons per year are needed, with a total CAPEX of 120-130 billion rubles.

The Ministry of Economy predicts a deficit of 450-500,000 tons per year by 2028 in the segments where the share of Chinese suppliers exceeds 70%. These segments include polymer additives, pigments and dyes, rubber chemistry, agrochemical active substances, and materials for microelectronics.

Experts attribute the increase in Chinese supplies to the growth of discounts from local producers due to excess capacity, as well as the weakening of the ruble and the favorable exchange rate of the yuan to the dollar.

The green trend also presents opportunities for Russian producers, particularly in Latin America, where demand for bio-solvents is on the rise. Additionally, anti-dumping duties against China open niches for catalyst raw materials and PFPE fluids (synthetic lubricants) in India and Southeast Asia.

The Angarsk plant, the first Russian enterprise to have commercially started manufacturing catalysts for Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, reported this achievement in 2014. However, there are no specific mentions of other Russian companies starting projects for polymerization or polymer additive catalysts, nor explicit future plans for such projects in the provided data.

By the end of the first half of 2025, the total installed capacity of Russian enterprises in this sector exceeded 7 million tons per year. Western sanctions since 2022 have reduced imports of low-tonnage chemicals by 65%. Despite these challenges, Russia continues to strive towards self-sufficiency in the light chemical industry.