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Job growth in the U.S. proved to be less robust than initially reported, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Decline in Labor Market: March 2024 Witnesses a Loss of 598,000 Jobs Over a 12-month Period

Revised Statistics Reveal Slower Job Growth in U.S. as Perceived by BLS
Revised Statistics Reveal Slower Job Growth in U.S. as Perceived by BLS

Job growth in the U.S. proved to be less robust than initially reported, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced that it will be revising payroll data for several months, including the employment figures for January 2022, which will be released in February. These revisions are a result of the "birth-and-death" model, a method used by the BLS to estimate job gains and losses based on company openings and closings.

This model is crucial in estimating jobs gained or lost due to companies starting or ceasing operations, but these companies are not initially available for sampling. The revisions in job figures are a consequence of this methodology, providing a more accurate picture of employment trends over time.

In September 2020, President Donald Trump nominated William Beach to replace Erika McEntarfer as BLS Commissioner. However, E.J. Antoni, who was nominated to replace McEntarfer, has been viewed as unqualified by economists across the political spectrum.

The monthly employment report is based on data derived from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, which surveys about 121,000 businesses and government agencies. Additionally, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, derived from reports by employers to the state unemployment insurance programs, represents about 95% of total employment.

The revisions have shown that the U.S. economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated. Moreover, the level of employment for the 12 months through March 2024 was downgraded by 598,000 jobs. Notably, job growth almost stalled in August 2020, and the economy shed jobs in June for the first time in four and a half years.

The National Association for Business Economics has urged policymakers, business leaders, and the economics community to stand with the BLS to ensure the accuracy, independence, and global trust of America's statistics. They have emphasized the importance of supporting the BLS to maintain the accuracy, independence, and global trust of America's statistics.

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics could revise the level of employment from April 2024 through March 2025 down by between 400,000 and 1 million jobs. These revisions underscore the importance of the "birth-and-death" model in providing a more accurate picture of employment trends and the economy's health.

In conclusion, the revisions in job figures based on the "birth-and-death" model offer a more accurate portrayal of the U.S. employment landscape. The revised figures show a more nuanced picture of the economy's recovery from the pandemic and highlight the importance of the BLS's work in ensuring the accuracy and independence of America's statistics.

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