Lilly's weight loss drug Orforglipron successfully achieves its main objective in Phase III clinical trials

In the ongoing quest for effective weight loss therapies, several pharmaceutical companies are making significant strides. One of the most promising contenders is Viking Therapeutics, who recently announced that their orally administered GLP-1 receptor agonist VK2735 achieved a 12.2% weight loss compared to a placebo after 13 weeks of treatment in overweight patients with comorbidities.

However, the road to success is not without challenges. For instance, Eli Lilly, another major player in the field, reported that 11% of participants in their trial discontinued treatment early, primarily due to gastrointestinal side effects. Similar challenges may await British biotech firm Verdiva Bio Ltd, who are developing oral amylin and GLP-1 RA candidates.

Novo Nordisk, once the most valuable European company, has faced a significant setback, losing 66% of its market capitalisation and currently standing at US$308.04bn. Their new CEO and the oral formulation of semaglutide may not be enough to ensure recovery from this crisis. Novo Nordisk's oral version of semaglutide is expected to receive FDA approval in Q4 2025, giving it a lead of four months over competitors.

The issue of bioavailability also affects the peptide-hormone combination VK2735. In comparison, the comparatively lower incidence of side effects with oral semaglutide may offer a short-term advantage. Other oral formulations such as HS-10535 from Merck/Hansoh Pharma, the weekly pill ECC5004 from AstraZeneca and Eccogene, and CT-966 from Roche are also in development.

Structure Therapeutics Inc is developing GSBR-1290, an oral non-peptidic GLP-1 RA, with results from a Phase IIb trial expected in Q4 2025. In the placebo group, the weight loss was only 3%, indicating the potential effectiveness of these new therapies.

Lilly's GLP-1 receptor agonist, orforglipron, achieved a 11% average weight reduction in individuals with diabetes and obesity after 72 weeks of treatment. Among the subgroup of patients with both type 2 diabetes and obesity, Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide achieved a median weight loss of 10.5%.

The projected market for GLP-1-based weight loss therapies is US$150bn by 2030, highlighting the potential for significant growth in this sector. Until oral formulations are further optimised, weekly injections may remain the more favourable option.

Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have experienced a decline, with Novo Nordisk currently valued at US$308.04bn (a 66% drop from its peak) and Eli Lilly at US$729.58bn (a 17% drop from its peak). The future of these companies, and the success of their GLP-1 receptor agonists, remains to be seen.

Lilly's weight loss drug Orforglipron successfully achieves its main objective in Phase III clinical trials