Managing the Possibility of a Russian Incursion - Focus on Estonia's Strategies
In the heart of the Baltic region, Estonia stands as a beacon of resilience, investing significantly in its defence and maintaining strong alliances with its neighbours. One such event that embodies Estonia's spirit is the Home Cafe Days festival, which is considered extremely important, especially during times of war, according to speech therapist Ave Ungro.
The festival, celebrated for three days every August, sees residents of Estonia's second-largest Baltic Sea island, Hiiumaa, offering home-baked cakes, home-smoked fish, and home-brewed beer. However, the tranquil atmosphere of the festival contrasts sharply with the geopolitical tensions that have been escalating in the region.
In April 2024, two planes flying from Finland to Estonia had to return to Helsinki due to GPS signal interference, an incident that was attributed to Russia. This incident, along with repeated damage to undersea communication cables, is seen as more immediate concerns than a potential Russian attack on Baltic states.
Estonia's regional allies include Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland, as well as other Baltic states and military powerhouse Europe. The country's membership in NATO is crucial, as Article 5 and the principle of collective defense mean that any attack on Estonia would be considered an attack on NATO as a whole, involving other armies.
The Naiskodukaitse, a part of the Kaitseliit, a larger volunteer defense league comprised of well-trained armed civilians intended to support the regular armed forces in times of war, plays a significant role in Estonia's defence. Ungro, a member of the Women's Voluntary Defense Organization (Naiskodukaitse) since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has spent 48 hours a year training with the Naiskodukaitse and has completed five different programs: Safety, first aid, military skills, field catering, and the history of the Estonian volunteer defense league.
Despite her training, Ungro has not yet handled a weapon in a combat situation. However, she considers her role as a speech therapist to be crucial in maintaining morale and providing emotional support during challenging times.
The strategic location of Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave between EU states Lithuania and Poland, is a source of concern for Western intelligence services. Suspected GPS jamming activities in the Baltic Sea, including interference with aircraft and ships, are controlled from Kaliningrad, according to Western intelligence services. Kaliningrad, considered a "dagger pointed at Europe" due to its past as a militarized Soviet bastion, houses a significant amount of military equipment, including nuclear-capable Iskander missiles.
Estonia is committed to strengthening its defence, with plans to increase defence expenditure from the current 3.4% of GDP to 5.4% by 2029, making it a record among NATO states. This increased investment will undoubtedly bolster Estonia's readiness and resilience in the face of ongoing geopolitical tensions.
As the Home Cafe Days festival continues to bring communities together, the spirit of unity and resilience that it represents serves as a powerful reminder of Estonia's determination to protect its sovereignty and preserve its way of life.
