Navigating the Dual Dilemmas of Rivalry and Collaboration

The United States finds itself at a crossroads, as it navigates a complex and rapidly changing global landscape. In the pursuit of strategic autonomy, Europe poses a challenge that the US must overcome, while maintaining strong ties with traditional allies such as Japan and the Republic of Korea in the Indo-Pacific region.

In an increasingly competitive arms market, the US must contend with both allies and competitors. Sometimes, US allies and hopeful partners invest in arms from America's competitors, such as Russia. This competition can strain relations, as demonstrated by the nuclear submarine deal with Australia.

The Middle East remains a volatile region, with fraught relations and diverging interests with Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel. Stability in the Middle East hinges on reducing tensions with Iran. Closer cooperation with allies such as the Philippines, and partners like India, Vietnam, and other nations where interests overlap is necessary.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised the possibility of Finland or Sweden, or both, joining NATO. European confidence in US leadership surged as President Biden took office, but the US network of allies and partners presents both challenges and opportunities. European allies will have to pick up more of the slack for collective defense, while the US must support more robust EU military capabilities without diminishing the role of NATO for collective defense.

Many European countries are increasing their spending on defense and national security programs. Understanding and adapting to these major shifts in the global security environment are essential to developing a competitive strategy for the United States.

In the realm of climate change, the US must encourage allies to combat global warming effectively. The leading countries the US must cooperate with include China, as the Paris Agreement consensus notably required cooperation between the US and China, and African nations due to their vast renewable energy potential. Germany supports countries like Côte d’Ivoire and South Africa in renewable energy and just energy transitions. Cooperation with European countries is also crucial because of their active role in climate and air pollution policy reforms.

The US must carefully nurture and modernize these relationships, leveraging its significant comparative advantage due to its wide array of partners and allies. However, the US will have to determine where it can or cannot compromise with its allies, partners, and adversaries. The US has nearly sixty treaty allies worldwide, and the careful management of these relationships will be key to maintaining global stability and security.