NC's confrontation with TCU: Wager recommendations for Bill Belichick's initial college match

TCU and North Carolina are set to square off in a college football game on September 1st at 8:00 pm ET at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill. The Horned Frogs are currently a 3.5-point favorite, despite originally opening as a two-point underdog.

For TCU, their road openers have been a challenge lately, as they are 2-4 against the spread in their last six. However, the addition of senior UConn transfer Pryce Yates somewhat attenuates those losses.

One player to watch is Eric McAlister, whose receiving yards prop of 69.5 is a key line. McAlister should see heavy volume against a North Carolina secondary that is still building chemistry.

The total of 55.0 points anticipates a fair amount of scoring, but has trended downwards from a high of 58.5. The question marks surrounding UNC's pass rush could contribute to this decrease, as they had five players register at least five sacks last season, but none are returning this year.

North Carolina's defense will face a difficult test in stopping TCU's fast-paced, air-raid offense. On the other hand, the Tar Heels' offense, led by junior South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez, has the potential to create mismatches and exploit the middle of the field against TCU's defense.

This game is considered a classic battle of known versus unknown, with the market favoring TCU's offense over the uncertainty of North Carolina's new schemes and personnel. It's worth noting that the college football public betting splits show the Tar Heels getting 63% of moneyline handle and exactly 50% of ATS handle.

Interestingly, 82% of game-total handle is coming in on the under. This could be due to concerns about North Carolina's defense, which had a concerning PFF grade of 51.7 under pressure in 2024. TCU's offense, particularly quarterback Josh Hoover, is heavily reliant on Hoover's performance, particularly under pressure.

In his first collegiate game, new North Carolina coach Bill Belichick will lead the Tar Heels. Belichick, who has spent his entire career at the NFL level, will be assisted by Offensive Coordinator Freddie Kitchens, who brings an NFL background and focuses on a physical, run-first offense. Defensive Coordinator Steve Belichick leads the defense and linebackers, with support from his brother Brian Belichick coaching defensive backs and safeties.

North Carolina's defense is expected to feature aggressive and exotic blitz packages, which could pose a threat to TCU's offense. However, the Horned Frogs will be looking to capitalise on any uncertainty in North Carolina's new schemes and personnel.

This promises to be an exciting and closely contested match-up between two teams with different strengths and weaknesses.

NC's confrontation with TCU: Wager recommendations for Bill Belichick's initial college match