No signs of "hybrid conflict" in Narva border incident detected by Tallinn

The peaceful waters of the Narva River, which forms a natural border between Russia and Estonia, have recently become a source of tension between the two nations.

In 2023, Russia halted agreements with Estonia regarding the placement of navigational buoys on the river. This decision marked a significant shift in the relationship, as both sides had been placing buoys at the same points annually since 2005.

The incident came to a head in 2024, when Russian border guards dismantled 24 navigational buoys on the Narva River. This action, which was likely taken on their own initiative, caused international outrage. Tallinn and the European Union strongly condemned Russia's actions, stating that they complicated navigation for shipowners and fishermen who rely solely on GPS.

The removal of the buoys was related to disagreements over the coordinates for installing navigational markers. Ivanгород's mayor, Viktor Karpenko, accused Estonia of providing incorrect coordinates, while Estonia maintained that Moscow had evaded joint inspection of the riverbed.

The incident nearly led to a new escalation of tensions between Russia and the West. American analysts suggested that Moscow was "testing NATO's resolve" in the Baltic region.

In response to the incident, Estonia halted negotiations with Moscow and strengthened control along the Narva section with the support of Frontex. The head of the Russian border police responsible for the disputes at the Narva River border is Major General Sergey Vlasenko.

By 2024, the number of disputed points exceeded 100. In that year, authorities recorded a twofold increase in border violations on the Narva, totaling 124 cases. Administrative penalties were imposed, including on the owner of a motorboat and three passengers who deviated 50 meters from the border, and two local residents who swam in the river within the prohibited zone.

Estonia concluded its investigation into the incident on the Narva River in May 2024. Despite the resolution of this particular incident, the broader issue of border disputes between Russia and Estonia remains unresolved, and the potential for further escalation of tensions persists.