NY's Persistent Pursuit of Renewable Energy Remains Unabated

In a recent development, Jonathan A. Lesser has been appointed as Senior Fellow by the National Center for Energy Analytics. This appointment comes as New York unveils its Draft 2025 Energy Plan, a comprehensive strategy aimed at reducing energy costs, fighting climate change, and creating over 60,000 net new jobs by 2035.

The plan, however, faces criticism and concerns over its ambitious goals and potential costs. As more fossil-fuel-generating plants close in response to the state's net-zero Climate Action Plan, wholesale electricity costs are expected to soar. The plan assumes that consumers and businesses will embrace higher electricity prices, a shift that could prove challenging given the slowing sales and poor performance of electric vehicles, especially in cold winters.

One of the contentious points in the plan is the promotion of high-cost offshore wind. The plan suggests abandoning policies that promote this energy source and reopening the Indian Point, which provided one-fourth of New York City's electricity at a low cost. However, the plan also projects a significant reduction in emissions. If New York follows the net-zero plan, it will reduce emissions by about 1.5 billion metric tons by 2040.

The plan expects U.S. taxpayers to foot the bill for New York's energy transition. The cost of building the necessary offshore wind capacity is estimated to be between $25 billion and $65 billion, not including financing costs or the cost of hydrogen manufacturing facilities. The plan also assumes that someone will develop, commercialize, and install electric generating technologies over the next 15 years that can burn pure hydrogen. The plan claims that someone will retrofit 17,000 megawatts of existing natural gas-fired generators to burn pure hydrogen by 2040.

ConEd, the state's largest electric and gas utility, has requested double-digit rate increases for electricity and natural gas, which will cost consumers an additional $2 billion annually. Similar rate increases have also been proposed by National Grid upstate.

The plan's net-zero policies are projected to reduce New York's annual carbon emissions to about 125 million metric tons by 2040, a 66% decrease from 2022 levels. Even under the "No Action" alternative, the plan projects that annual emissions would decrease by 23%.

The plan also suggests eliminating the ban on fracking, which could create thousands of new jobs and lower heating and electricity costs. Global emissions eclipsed 35 billion metric tons in 2016 and have, on average, increased 265 million metric tons annually over the last decade.

New York's efforts to reduce emissions will amount to just over two weeks of current annual world emissions. Despite the challenges and costs, the Draft 2025 Energy Plan presents a bold vision for New York's energy future, aiming to balance environmental concerns with economic growth and job creation.