Paris encounters another turmoil following the collapse of its administration, revealing the aftermath.
In a significant turn of events, the French government, led by Premier FranΓ§ois Bayrou, has fallen after just under nine months. This marks the second prime minister in a row to step down within a year and a half, dealing a significant defeat to President Emmanuel Macron, who appointed both.
After the fall, Prime Minister Bayrou must submit the resignation of his government to Macron. The political paralysis resulting from a government change could delay budget plans and push foreign policy, including Ukraine aid, into the background.
The political landscape in France is complex, with no faction having its own majority in the National Assembly. Finding a new prime minister is likely to be another difficult balancing act. The three major forces in the lower house - Macron's center bloc, the left, and Le Pen's right-wing nationalists - each lack their own majority, adding to the challenge.
The failure of the government goes back to the parliamentary elections initiated by Macron in 2022, which resulted in this complex political mix. The impending government change is not expected to immediately affect cooperation between France and Germany, now considered Ukraine's most important partner in terms of weapons deliveries and financial support, with the USA continuing to withdraw from Ukraine support.
The debt repayment payments could become the largest budget item, even before education or defense expenses. France, after Greece and Italy, has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the eurozone, currently around 114 percent. A delay and weakening of austerity efforts could negatively impact the interest burden of new government bonds and the French economy.
The next step in France's government formation involves new Prime Minister SΓ©bastien Lecornu attempting to stabilize the French economy by passing a budget and navigating the divided National Assembly. He aims to achieve this through dialogue and compromises with various political parties and unions.
However, pressure on Macron, both on the streets and in parliament, is likely to increase. If all efforts to find a prime minister fail, it is still conceivable that the French will be called back to the polls. Theoretically, Macron could dissolve the National Assembly again and call for new elections, but he had repeatedly made it clear that he did not want to resort to this means.
The European Commission has initiated a penalty procedure for excessive new debt and fears further deterioration due to the political situation. With the further weakening of Macron, more responsibility for Europe falls on Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Despite the challenges, France continues to support Ukraine with military means, financially, and through training programs for soldiers, providing around 7.6 billion euros since 2022 until the end of June 2025. The fall of the government does not provide information about the impact on France's finances.
As the situation unfolds, the focus will be on Lecornu's ability to navigate the political landscape and stabilize the economy, while Macron faces increased pressure to find a solution and regain the trust of the French people.
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