Plunging rapeseed prices - Crisis in the rapeseed market due to Chinese import tariffs

The European Union (EU) is gearing up for a significant increase in its rapeseed harvest in 2025, according to various projections and estimates.

Initially, the International Grains Council (IGC) and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) had projected EU rapeseed production to be 18.8 million tonnes and 19.5 million tonnes, respectively, for 2025. However, adverse weather conditions in 2024 had a significant impact on the EU's yield potential, causing a reduction compared to the 2025 estimates.

Despite the lack of specific data about the amount of rapeseed harvested by farmers in the EU in 2025, the latest Commission data suggests that the EU is expected to harvest approximately 18.54 million tonnes of rapeseed in 2025, marking a nearly 1.9 million tonne increase from 2024.

Among the major EU countries, Germany and France are expected to see significant increases in their rapeseed production. Germany's rapeseed harvest is estimated to be 3.9 million tonnes, a notable increase from last year's 3.6 million tonnes, while France is expected to produce around 4.2 million tonnes of rapeseed, up from last year's 3.9 million tonnes.

However, the EU rapeseed harvest is not without its challenges. The persistent weakness of US soybeans, as evidenced by a large US soybean harvest and high imports by China, is putting downward pressure on rapeseed prices. The Euronext rapeseed market is also affected by this trend.

Moreover, the crash in rapeseed prices was triggered by the introduction of a 75.8% antidumping duty on Canadian rapeseed by China's Ministry of Commerce. This move has had a profound impact on the global rapeseed market, causing prices to fall. Rapeseed prices on Euronext have dropped to 461 euros and 467 euros per tonne for November 2025 and February 2026, respectively.

In other news, weather conditions in the southern regions of Ukraine have reduced sunflower seed production in 2025 by 5.5% from 14.6 million tonnes to 13.8 million tonnes. Ukraine has also revised its forecast for Ukrainian rapeseed production in 2025 from 3.2 million tonnes to 3.0 million tonnes.

As the harvest in the EU is currently in full swing, it remains to be seen how these factors will influence the final rapeseed yield and prices for the year. The uncertainty surrounding US soybean exports due to the uncertainty of tariffs and the continued impact of the antidumping duty on Canadian rapeseed are factors that will continue to shape the global rapeseed market in the coming months.