Political Outlook of GOP in 2024: Analyses and Opinions
The 2022 midterm elections, held on November 8th, did not result in the "red wave" that was widely anticipated. Despite polls indicating that Republicans would likely capture majorities in both chambers of Congress, the results fell short of the predicted landslide.
Analysts and political pundits widely expected Republicans to make sweeping gains, allowing them to capture majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. However, the elections saw a close contest, with the outcome hanging in the balance until the final votes were counted.
In the House of Representatives, the Republican Party is heavily positioned against the race, holding a majority of merely 1 seat, 219 seats compared to the 218 needed to capture the majority. The Senate, on the other hand, does not appear to be as electorally horrendous for the Republican Party, with the party holding very good prospects in a number of contests.
The presidential election of 2022 is expected to be one of the closest and most volatile in American political history. Incumbent Democratic President Joseph Biden is expected to formally announce his candidacy for re-election before the summer of 2022. In national polls, President Trump leads incumbent President Biden by 2 points on average. However, in a head-to-head with President Biden and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr, President Trump's lead grows to 4 points.
Former President Donald Trump holds a 63-point lead for the Republican Party's nomination for President, according to DecisionDesk/TheHill's latest poll. The MAGA movement, which supported Trump in the 2020 elections, is expected to remain potent and influential within the Republican Party, regardless of President Trump's electoral success.
If President Trump were to win the election, he would solidify his grip on the GOP machine and establishment, bringing about the complete takeover of the Republican National Committee by allies and family members aligned with President Trump. There is no publicly available information about who will be the Republican National Committee chairperson if President Trump wins the next election. The current chair is Joe Gruters, but any succession plans after a potential Trump victory have not been disclosed.
The 2024 presidential race is currently being shaped with debates and campaigns taking place across the nation. Ashwin Prabaharan '26 has written an article titled "The Case For Senator Tim Scott for President," suggesting a potential alternative to the current frontrunner, former President Trump. Former Governor Nikki Haley, known for her moderate stances on critical issues, is also seen as a sensible candidate to back for the Republican Party's presidential nomination.
The Iowa caucuses of January 2022 saw former President Donald Trump win 98 out of 99 voting precincts and receive 51% of votes. The New Hampshire primaries also favored Trump in January 2022.
Ashwin Prabaharan '26 has also written an article titled "The 2022 Midterms: The Red Wave That Wasn't," analysing the reasons behind the unexpected results of the midterm elections. The article provides insightful commentary on the state of American politics and the future of the Republican and Democratic parties.
