Politics at the national level | Domestic political affairs
In the first half of 2025, several major cities in the United States have seen varying trends in crime rates. Here's a breakdown of the developments in Chicago, New York, Seattle, Baltimore, San Francisco, and Portland, Oregon.
Charlotte, North Carolina, experienced an increase in homicides, with 105 reported in 2024 compared to 88 in 2023. Residents like Amy Holt have expressed concern, citing incidents such as car theft attempts and finding bullets on the ground while walking with her dogs. Notably, the rate of vehicle thefts per 100,000 people more than doubled in Charlotte from 2020 through 2024.
On the other hand, homicides through the first six months of 2025 were down significantly compared to the same period in 2024 in these cities. Baltimore, for instance, has seen a 25% or more decrease in homicides. This decline is part of a three-year trend, with homicides 35% lower in 2024 compared to 2018.
Baltimore's approach to reducing violence has been unique. By offering mentorship, social services, and job opportunities to young people likely to commit crimes, the city has managed to curb violence effectively.
Crime index reports show that theft crimes rose from 2020 to 2024 in four of the six cities analysed by AP. However, property crimes, such as theft, burglary, and motor vehicle theft, were mostly down in these cities in the first six months of 2025. Aggravated assaults were also down in Chicago, Portland, Seattle, Baltimore, and San Francisco and virtually unchanged in New York.
President Donald Trump has threatened to deploy the National Guard to several cities, including Chicago, New York, Seattle, Baltimore, San Francisco, and Portland, citing rising crime rates. Vice President JD Vance, however, has suggested that governors and mayors should ask the Trump administration for help in managing crime. Trump has already taken federal control of police in Washington, D.C.
In contrast, cities like Indianapolis have seen crime rates soar. The city had a homicide rate of 19 per every 100,000 residents in 2024, more than four times higher than New York's.
A survey by The AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that the vast majority of Americans see crime as a "major problem" in large cities. Despite this, data expert John Roman stated that there's no U.S. city where there "is really a crisis" in terms of crime. Michael Scott, director of the Center for Problem-Oriented Policing at Arizona State University, agreed, stating that the approach used in these cities has resulted in more significant reductions in shootings and homicides than any other strategy he's seen in his 50-year career.
In Republican-leaning states, cities with a significant crime decline similar to those mentioned have not been specified in the available data. However, Washington, D.C. (though not a state) showed a notable reduction in crime rates, including violent crime, despite political conflict over police control and National Guard deployment.
A tragic incident occurred in Minneapolis, where there was a shooter attack at a Catholic school, but overall, homicides and most other crimes have been falling in the city.
In conclusion, while crime rates in certain cities have risen, many cities have also seen significant declines. The strategies used in cities like Baltimore, offering social services and job opportunities, seem to be effective in reducing violence. The debate over the role of the National Guard and federal intervention in managing crime continues.
