Positive forecast: The progression of Latin America towards deploying 20 million electric vehicles by the year 2030

Latin America and the Caribbean are witnessing a significant shift towards electric mobility, with the region experiencing rapid growth in the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and electric buses. According to a study conducted by the Latin American Energy Organisation (OLADE), the electric vehicle fleet in the region has grown 14-fold in the past four years, and this trend is expected to continue.

Current State of EV Adoption

On average, Latin America and the Caribbean have 3.3 charging stations for every 100 electric vehicles. As of now, the region boasts 4,848 public charging stations, with Brazil and Mexico leading the way with the highest number of stations. However, the growth of EVs is driving a need for a more extensive charging network.

Costa Rica stands out as the country with the highest per capita adoption rate of electric vehicles, with 34.3 electric vehicles per 10,000 inhabitants. This is a remarkable achievement, considering the regional average is much lower.

Growth Scenarios for EV Fleet by 2030

Three growth scenarios have been identified for the electric vehicle fleet by 2030: Conservative (5 million EVs), Intermediate (10 million EVs), and Optimistic (20 million EVs). In the Optimistic Scenario, 46,943 GWh of energy would be required, implying an installed capacity of 11,405 MW in renewable energy and an investment of 10 billion dollars. In the Intermediate Scenario, 23,472 GWh of electricity would be needed, requiring an investment of 5 billion dollars in renewable energy. The Conservative Scenario requires 11,736 GWh of energy, with an investment of 2.5 billion dollars in electricity generation infrastructure.

The Future of Electric Mobility

The future of electric mobility in Latin America and the Caribbean depends on several factors, including public policy adoption, charging infrastructure development, and electric vehicle availability. Key strategies to overcome the charging infrastructure challenge include promoting home and workplace charging.

Governments and private companies are collaborating to address the expansion of EV charging infrastructure and build renewable energy capacity. Companies like Tesla Inc., ChargePoint, and Blink Charging Co. have expanded to Latin American markets, working with governments and regulators to expand networks and improve technology. The goal is to support the ambitious target of 20 million electric vehicles by 2030 in the region.

The Regional Leaders

Brazil currently has over 152,000 electric vehicles on the road, making it the leader in the region in absolute terms. Chile and Colombia lead in the growth of electric buses, with 1,849 and 1,590 units respectively. In the first half of 2024, the electric vehicle fleet grew by 60%, with countries like Brazil, Mexico, Costa Rica, Colombia, and Chile leading the electrification of transport.

Overcoming Europe and the United States

Latin America surpasses Europe and the United States in terms of electric buses per million inhabitants. This achievement is a testament to the region's commitment to sustainable mobility solutions and its potential to become a global leader in electric mobility.

Policies should be implemented to encourage private investment in charging stations, such as tax exemptions and subsidies. With the right policies in place, Latin America and the Caribbean could see a bright future for electric mobility, driving technological innovation and investment in infrastructure. By 2030, an optimistic scenario projects a fleet of 20 million electric vehicles on the road, transforming the region's transportation landscape.

Positive forecast: The progression of Latin America towards deploying 20 million electric vehicles by the year 2030