Possibility of Another Xi'an Incident in Taiwan?

In the heart of East Asia, the political landscape of Taiwan is undergoing a significant transformation, with increased antagonism between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) following China's intensified hostility against the current administration. This development has left Beijing in a quandary, forced to take its time in crafting a new policy on Taiwan.

The recent recall campaign, though unsuccessful, indicates that a significant number of Taiwanese people are not as averse to China as the DPP anticipated. This shift in public sentiment could potentially impact the DPP's dominance, especially if their narrative about the threat from China loses its impact.

The recall campaign has also served to intensify the rivalry between the KMT and the DPP, transforming it into an emotional mobilization for an impeachment campaign against President Lai. The opposition may push for President Lai's resignation as Taiwan approaches the local elections in 2026 and the presidential election in 2028.

President Lai, in response, may move away from his previous stance and begin to engage in dialogue between the government and the opposition. If President Lai steps down, it will likely offer the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) a chance to improve cross-strait relations.

Beijing has been capitalizing on Taiwanese discontent with President Lai, working with the KMT to paint the government as authoritarian. China views the outcome of the recall movement as a testament to the effectiveness of its combined soft and hard strategies.

Meanwhile, the sense of "Taiwanese identity" within the country remains unchanged, according to recent polling from National Chengchi University. The desire to maintain the status quo also remains strong.

The political party landscape in Taiwan is becoming more competitive, with the People's Party, led by Ko Wen-je, adding another dimension to the political discourse. However, Ko Wen-je became embroiled in a bribery scandal in 2024, casting a shadow over the party.

As Taiwan navigates these political challenges, the possibility of a military invasion remains postponed, at least in the short term. However, an invasion of Taiwan by force coordinated with the KMT cannot be ruled out. Beijing may orchestrate a second Xi'an Incident in Taiwan, inviting Chinese police or military to the island to maintain order.

In an effort to deescalate tensions, Taiwan may begin to engage with Beijing more effectively and diplomatically. The DPP cabinet and the Leour web-relative Yuan caucus may undergo a major reorganization and shift their strategy vis-a-vis the opposition party.

As the situation unfolds, it is clear that Taiwan's future will be shaped by the delicate balance between political rivalry, public sentiment, and international relations. The world watches on, hoping for a peaceful resolution that respects Taiwan's sovereignty and the will of its people.