Prepare for a warm and dry conclusion to the year 2025, forecasters predict

The Kenyan government is taking proactive measures to support farmers as they face potential declines in crop and livestock production due to the approaching short rains season. The Ministry of Agriculture is preparing measures to improve post-harvest storage, increase aflatoxin checks, ensure timely release of farm inputs and advisories, and strengthen value chains.

The challenges in the agricultural sector are linked to the developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), expected to persist through November. This weather phenomenon typically brings drier-than-normal conditions over East Africa, potentially suppressing rainfall during the short rains.

According to the Kenya Meteorological Department, below-average rainfall is forecast for most regions of Kenya between October and December. The Northeast, Southeastern lowlands, Coast, South and Central Rift Valley, and the Lake Victoria Basin are expected to be the most affected regions. However, there will be exceptions, with the Highlands West of the Rift Valley and parts of North-Western expected to receive near to above average rainfall.

Even in areas where rainfall is expected, distribution will be poor, with prolonged dry spells punctuated by occasional storms. This unpredictable rainfall pattern could strain energy supply, with reduced rainfall potentially limiting hydroelectric output and solar power relying on the sun being obscured by more cloud cover. Strong winds could also damage power lines.

Farmers have been warned of reduced yields and lower incomes due to the forecasted weather conditions. To mitigate the far-reaching impacts of the predicted weather patterns, the report calls for coordinated preparedness across counties and ministries, particularly those managing arid and semi-arid lands.

Humanitarian groups have cautioned that migration and displacement from affected areas could fuel resource conflicts between communities and even between people and wildlife. Disaster responders are on high alert for drought, floods, landslides or mudslides, and disease outbreaks.

The Kenya Meteorological Department reports that the coastal region and parts of the northeastern region of Kenya are most likely to experience above-average rainfall, while the remaining regions are expected to receive below-average precipitation during the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole expected in October. Temperatures will remain higher than average during the short rains season.

As Kenya braces for these challenging weather conditions, it's crucial for all sectors to work together to support farmers and communities, ensuring food security and minimising the impact on the economy.