Presidential successors in 2028: Odds for potential GOP and Democratic nominees stated by a betting platform
In the ever-evolving landscape of American politics, the 2028 U.S. presidential race is already gathering steam. A prediction market, Polymarket, has released a list of potential candidates from both major parties, including some unexpected names.
Among the Democrats, social media sensation MrBeast, actor George Clooney, wrestler-turned-actor Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, basketball player LeBron James, comedian Jon Stewart, and New York Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani are on the list. Notably, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Vice President JD Vance are considered frontrunners. Newsom is predicted to have a 21% chance of being the Democratic nominee, while Vance is most likely to receive the Republican nomination, with a 55% chance.
On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis share a 5% chance for a third term, according to Polymarket. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is the second choice for the Republican nomination, with a 12.3% chance.
The Democratic race is currently closer, with New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez coming in as the second choice for the Democratic nomination, with a 16% chance. Other notable Democrats include Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, with a 7% chance, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, with a 12% chance.
Polymarket operates by allowing people to buy "shares" in a predicted outcome. Each share costs up to $1 based on the listed probabilities. As the probabilities change, share prices on Polymarket adjust accordingly. Shares can be sold before the final outcome is determined to take a profit or to try and cut losses.
It's important to note that while Polymarket offers markets specifically for the Democratic and Republican party nominees, the detailed odds by individual candidate within each party were not included in the provided data beyond the overall winner odds.
Moreover, Polymarket is not currently open to United States bettors, but it is likely to be legalized again in the near future. As of July 2025, Polymarket favours the Democratic Party at about 54% for winning the presidency. The current overall odds for the 2028 U.S. presidential election winner on Polymarket are as follows: JD Vance (27%), Gavin Newsom (15%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (10%), Pete Buttigieg (8%), Marco Rubio (6%), Ron DeSantis (5%), Donald Trump (5%), Kamala Harris (4%), Nikki Haley (3%), Gretchen Whitmer (3%), Glenn Youngkin (3%), Tim Walz (2%), Tulsi Gabbard (2%), and Donald Trump Jr. (2%).
As the 2028 presidential race heats up, keep an eye on these potential candidates and the shifting odds on Polymarket.
Casino-and-gambling enthusiasts might find interest in the Presidential race, as Polymarket's odds for JD Vance to win the Republican nomination stands at 55%, offering a potential gamble. Similarly, Gavin Newsom is predicted to have a 21% chance of being the Democratic nominee on Polymarket, corresponding to a casino-game with moderate odds. Lotteries and gambling trends intersect with politics, as Polymarket operates like a market, allowing individuals to purchase "shares" in predicted outcomes related to the 2028 U.S. presidential race, with general-news outlets reporting on the shifting odds of various candidates.
