Projecting COVID-19 Spread Patterns Across African Regions

In a groundbreaking development, an international team of researchers, including those from Lancaster University, have devised a strategy to better understand the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic across the African continent. This strategy, detailed in an article published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), carries the DOI 10.1073/pnas.2026664118.

The study, which does not specify the authors or the exact country of origin, highlights the importance of regional collaboration in managing the pandemic. It underscores the potential benefits of seeking coordination in testing and reporting cases, a critical aspect in controlling the spread of the virus.

The challenges in tracking the pandemic, particularly in lower Human Development Index (HDI) economies, are emphasised as significant obstacles. However, the researchers found that a country's testing capacity, social policy, landlocked status, temperature, and humidity are important contributing factors explaining the within and between-country transmission of cases.

The strategy aims to improve the ability of African countries to interpret complex data during the pandemic. The team collaborated with colleagues in the USA, Uganda, and Switzerland to create a data-driven disease surveillance framework.

The article also sheds light on the predicted increased risk of severe COVID-19 in Africa, despite its younger population. This is attributed to a lack of adequate healthcare and comorbidities such as HIV.

In light of these findings, the article suggests that equitable behavioural and social interventions, balanced with coordinated country-specific strategies, are crucial for infection suppression. As of August 13, 2020, over 1 million new cases and over 20,000 deaths had been reported in all African Union (AU) Member States.

Overall, the study underscores the need for regional efforts to coordinate resources for testing and reporting cases, which could provide potential advantages in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. It also emphasises the importance of equitable behavioural and social interventions, along with country-specific strategies, in controlling the pandemic in Africa. The projected number of cases and deaths within the first year of the pandemic is over 44 million and 190,000, respectively, underscoring the urgency of these efforts.