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France Faces Political Uncertainty as Macron Ponders Next Move

France is on the brink of a potential political crisis, as President Emmanuel Macron faces a crucial decision on the formation of a new government. The country's political landscape has been shaken up following the recent polls, which reveal a tight race between various political blocs.

According to the latest polls, the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) is leading with 31-33% of the votes, followed by the centrist bloc at 14-15%, the conservative Les Républicains (LR) at 13%, and a united left at 25%. This dynamic has made it challenging for a Socialist-led government to secure the necessary support, given the LR and centrist bloc's lack of backing.

The RN's president, Jordan Bardella, has stated that he will only accept the position of prime minister if he has a clear parliamentary majority. However, a repeat of the 2024 Front républicain strategy to block the RN and its allies from winning a majority in the National Assembly seems unlikely to be successful this time, given the current polling trends.

The Socialist prime ministership is also questionable, as the PS First Secretary Olivier Faure has advocated for a coalition government, but LR has made it clear they would not support such a government, even though their votes would be essential. The PS has presented an alternative budget focusing on taxing high incomes and wealth, but only envisaging half the financial sacrifices of the government's plan.

In contrast, Bayrou, the head of the centrist MoDem party, has presented a draft budget with 44 billion euros in spending cuts and tax increases. However, the country's fiscal situation is described as urgent, with the potential for financial chaos if not addressed.

The vote of confidence is unlikely to be passed, as parties from the Socialists to the far-right RN have expressed skepticism and opposition. After the dismissal of François Bayrou as Prime Minister following a vote of no confidence, President Macron is set to quickly appoint a new Prime Minister in the coming days. Xavier Bertrand, a potential candidate, has not had a final decision announced yet.

The main decision now facing President Macron is whether to attempt to construct a new governing formula within the current parliament or to call new elections. By dissolving parliament in June 2024, Macron has reclaimed his role as the master of the political calendar, but his options have been significantly limited.

Meanwhile, several civil society opposition groups have called for a general mobilization against the government on September 10. The vote will take place before the start of budget debates, which are expected to last the entire fall. With a clear plurality of seats, the RN and its allies might not be able to refuse to form a government without political consequences.

The timing for new parliamentary elections has not been explicitly stated, but Macron could dissolve the National Assembly and call for new elections if no stable government can be formed. The country awaits Macron's decision, which could determine the course of France's political future.