Russia-U.S. tensions escalate as Trump and Putin meet in Alaska, drawing parallels with European conflict history

The much-anticipated Alaska summit between President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on August 15 failed to produce a sweeping deal that would pressure Ukraine to cede land to Russia. The meeting, which was a bilateral one, saw the exclusion of European leaders, a move that suggests a marginalization of European involvement in discussions about the future of their own continent.

Despite efforts by several European states, including Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Finland, and the European Commission, to involve Ukraine in the discussions, their advocacy fell on deaf ears. In an interview with Fox News, Trump stated that it was up to President Volodymyr Zelensky "to get it done" and that European states "have to get involved a little bit."

The EU, however, is not backing down. The bloc is aiming to achieve strategic relevance in the short term and full strategic autonomy in the long term in West-Russia relations. This includes treating Ukraine as a de facto security partner, with ongoing and increased European arms transfers, deeper integration measures like basing Ukrainian veterans at European training grounds and military academies, and taboo-breaking steps like recruiting volunteer troops from EU member states to bolster Ukraine's armed forces.

Building strong European military forces is seen as essential for projecting strength and credibility to authoritarian leaders like Trump and Putin. The EU is also prioritising targeted capability- and integration-building within EU and NATO institutional frameworks, including improving command-and-control coordination, civil-military integration, procuring large numbers of unmanned systems, transporters, and counter-drone capabilities, and reforming reserve systems.

The summit also reinforces the risks to Ukrainians and their European allies of continued US leverage over their security. Putin may have used his time with Trump to press his narrative about the root causes of the war, potentially weakening Western influence in Ukraine. Trump appeared to share elements of Putin's worldview during the summit.

Moreover, Putin may have used the summit to further his narrative about the root causes of the war, including Ukraine's independent course, its perceived anti-Russian integration into Western institutions, and the broader erosion of Russian influence in eastern Europe. The EU should play a more assertive, conditional role in its wider eastern neighbourhood, including tying increased macro-financial and energy backing to rule-of-law benchmarks in Moldova, funding an expanded EU cyber and disinformation support mission, and playing a leading role in realizing the US-brokered normalization between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Trump's statements suggest that he may expect Ukraine to handle its own negotiations with Russia, implying reduced European involvement. However, the EU remains committed to its strategic goals in the region, aiming to maintain and strengthen its influence in the face of shifting geopolitical dynamics.

Russia-U.S. tensions escalate as Trump and Putin meet in Alaska, drawing parallels with European conflict history