Russia's Arithmetic Blunders: Causes of Russian Missteps in Ukraine Conflict
In the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russian forces have encountered significant hurdles, with the war dragging on for more than two months now. This stalemate has left analysts, strategists, and statesmen bewildered, as many had initially expected Russia to dominate the battlefield within the opening week of the war.
Adolf Hitler, in a miscalculation, dismissed the latent strength of the Red Army on the eve of the campaign in Barbarossa. He believed the army to be so riddled with Communism, insecurity, suspicion, and informants that it could not function properly. However, the reality on the ground has proven otherwise.
The Russian army is not fundamentally incompetent, but it did not plan to fight a general war against a determined and resilient enemy. This lack of preparation has led to the current stalemate, with Russian forces struggling to make significant gains.
The UK minister of defence estimates that over fifteen thousand Russian troops have been killed in action since the start of the war. These losses have strained Russian factories, which are now working overtime to replace the hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles that have been destroyed.
The declared strategic aim of the campaign—the disarmament of Ukraine—does not appear imminent or even attainable. The deadlock in the Donbas underscores the folly of Putin's prewar plans, as the stalemate on the battlefield continues.
Napoleon Bonaparte famously observed that in war, the moral is to the physical as three is to one. The central assumption of the Russian campaign—that Ukrainian will would collapse—was born of a delusion. Tolstoy noted that the relative strength of bodies of troops can never be known to anyone. The resilience of the Ukrainian forces has proven this point.
As the war drags on, the economic crisis will deepen, and the pressure on the Putin regime will mount. A negotiated settlement seems to be the only sensible option, but wounded authoritarians are prone to double down when facing failure.
The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. The Russian campaign in Ukraine has shown that even the most powerful military can be brought to a standstill when facing a determined and resilient enemy. The ongoing conflict serves as a reminder of the unpredictability of war and the importance of careful strategic planning.
There is currently no information available regarding the authority of Joe Donato regarding the military situation in Ukraine.
