Sleeping through opportunity could potentially put the world on a path to conflict.
The world is witnessing a surge in potential conflicts, with ongoing disputes in various regions including Ukraine, Taiwan, the Middle East, Eastern Congo, Sudan, and Myanmar. As tensions rise, so does the race for military advancements and strategic control.
In the Arctic, Russia is poised to assert its dominance over the Northeast Passage, a significant shipping route. This move is not without contention, as regional powers are wary of being used as pawns in the ongoing "democratic-authoritarian" conflict.
Meanwhile, China has taken a lead in the development of hypersonic missiles, capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 20, posing a significant challenge to aircraft carriers. The U.S. and Europe are currently lagging in this domain, but Turkey has emerged as a new leader in the arms industry, particularly in drone development.
The zones most likely to see a big-power war are in Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Middle East. However, the division of satellite rights in space and communication cables on the ocean floors is also emerging as a major issue, adding another layer of complexity to global conflicts.
Armament is not limited to traditional battlefields. Countries are also developing new military technologies for cyberspace, with Russia leading in the development of underwater drones. The Trump administration sees Greenland as crucial in countering Russia's threat in the Arctic, given its potential for military bases.
The global political landscape is fragmenting, with multilateral blocs emerging. Regional powers like Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and India are increasingly asserting themselves in the geopolitical power play.
Turkey's military advancements are a result of strategic investments aimed at achieving technological leadership and greater autonomy in defense. Under President Erdogan, the Defense Industry Agency has overseen these investments since 2018, leading to Turkey becoming a major arms exporter. New Turkish weapons include the widely exported Bayraktar TB2 combat drones and the fifth-generation KAAN fighter jet.
The crisis of political institutions is a fundamental problem, with Western democracies and other countries experiencing a rapid decline. China's political agenda in the Belt and Road Initiative and activities around Antarctica come with risks, but mediocrity in Western countries is seen as the real danger, not highly criticized personalities like President Trump.
The U.S. sees Greenland as crucial in countering Russia's threat in the Arctic, but the Trump administration's aim to end wars in Ukraine and the Middle East has not yet been successful. A scramble to establish control in the Far North is underway, making the Arctic a potential hotspot for future conflicts.
Lastly, the China-India-Pakistan triangle remains a potentially dangerous area, adding to the complex web of global tensions. As powers continue to vie for influence and military advancements, the world watches with bated breath, hoping for a peaceful resolution to these escalating conflicts.
