The Influence of Domestic Affairs on Military Tactics: An Explanation on Why Military Leaders Must Grasp Its Implications
Presidential elections can significantly influence the decision-making process regarding military commitments, as shown in the cases of Iraq and Afghanistan.
During the George W. Bush administration, a marked reluctance to increase or sustain military commitments was evident as elections approached. This was particularly evident in the decision-making process surrounding the surge of troops to Iraq, which was delayed by at least six months due to concerns about the political risks of shifting course in the lead-up to the 2006 midterms.
Similar trends were observed during Barack Obama's presidency. His decision to withdraw all troops in 2011 was influenced by the need to avoid being seen as abrogating his campaign pledge to end the war. The political sensitivity of keeping troops beyond the December 2011 deadline grew strong enough to lead Obama to abandon the effort altogether.
The absence of a follow-on force in Iraq is cited as a permissive factor in the subsequent emergence of the Islamic State. Conversely, the presence of a few thousand troops may not have achieved lasting peace in Iraq, but it could have potentially limited bloodshed and moved toward a resolution of sectarian tensions.
In 2010, the Obama administration debated plans to keep troops in Iraq on advise-and-assist missions. However, the political risks associated with such a move were deemed too high, highlighting the importance of public and congressional opinion in the sustainability of military commitments in a democracy.
The author's ongoing research on the impact of electoral politics on wartime decision-making is discussed in a recent article in International Security. The research suggests that presidential reluctance to embrace courses of action that entail a prolonged or increased military commitment as an election approaches is a common trend.
This trend is not limited to the US. Military leaders can increase the probability of proposing a sound plan that falls within the president's decision space by providing a wider range of military options. For instance, in 1972, President Richard Nixon encouraged his national security advisor Henry Kissinger to be "perfectly cold-blooded" about ending the Vietnam War, acknowledging the political risks associated with prolonged military engagement.
Democratic leaders tend to be picky about choosing when and where to fight, favoring strategies that minimize troop exposure to harm and political costs. The midterms were a crucial turning point in the decision-making process regarding the surge of troops to Iraq, underscoring the role of elections as a source of constraint on decision makers due to the natural aversion of citizens to conflict and the retrospective punishment of leaders for excessive belligerence.
The author's research provides valuable insights into the complex interplay between elections, military strategy, and foreign policy. It serves as a reminder of the need for careful consideration of political risks in military decision-making, particularly in democratic societies.
